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Purges in North Korea
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 15 - 12 - 2013

Because North Korea is such a secretive, isolated country, independently verifiable information on the execution of Jang Song-thaek is absent. Thus, conjecture about what appears to be the ruthless disposal of the uncle of leader Kim Jong-un and Pyongyang's No. 2 official following an alleged coup attempt is based primarily on guesswork which might be accurate or wide of the mark.
Certainly Jang was powerful, considered the power behind the throne in Pyongyang, having mentored Kim when he succeeded his father Kim Jong-il two years ago. The younger Kim was so young and untested it was thought then that Jang would probably be the man really in charge.
That makes Jang's death all the more shocking and the reasons all the more elusive. Obviously, Jang and Kim fell out; the question is over what. The official report says he attempted to overthrow the government. Claims of sexual impropriety and corruption were also made. Just four days elapsed from the time of his public arrest to his execution, with a trial in between in which Jang reportedly confessed. Whether the charges are genuine or fabricated is unknown. What is known is that this purge was preceded by the reported executions last month of Jang's two closest confidants and that a purge of Jang's comrades, according to state media, will continue.
Kim removed the country's top general last year and these latest purges suggest a power struggle within North Korea which throws up several questions regarding how secure Kim's own position is and how much support there is for Jang among the senior leadership. Many will be asking whether it is Kim's hand alone behind this execution, or whether the army is seeking to reassert its power. The decision to kill Jang so quickly might also suggest a lack of confidence and that Kim's power is weaker – not stronger - than that of his father.
Whatever the reasons, executing someone with Jang's pedigree, seen as a father figure to Kim, would be a dramatic statement that Kim intends to be ruthless in consolidating his control. Pyongyang is sending a clear message to its people and the world about the intolerance of opposition in a totalitarian state that demands absolute loyalty to the leader. The execution and the speed with which it was carried out is certainly a chilling demonstration of total control by Kim and crushes hopes of those who had hoped for change under North Korea's new leadership.
So North Korea now enters a new, dangerous phase in its history. Will the anti-Jang purge stop with him or will there be more casualties as Kim moves against others, even those closest to him? Will internal unrest surface over Jang's ouster?
It could all look like a family quarrel in a far off land among people whom the outside world knows almost nothing about. But internal disputes can sometimes explode with huge global consequences. Seoul, Tokyo and Beijing will be watching carefully for the latest moves from Pyongyang which is apparently being led by an unpredictable young leader with nuclear weapons, who is determined to show who is boss. The purge could be followed by military moves from Pyongyang, including a nuclear test, like one it carried out in February, after which it threatened attacks on Japanese, South Korean and US military targets in the region. The US has a major strategic interest in the region, in addition to its defense agreements with some of the countries now feeling most threatened.


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