With four weeks left before Americans go to the polls to elect a new president, the numbers do not look good for John McCain. Since the start of the financial crisis, he has been steadily losing ground to Barack Obama in the polls especially in the all important battleground states. He has, furthermore, been forced to defend states which are traditionally Republican, as recently evidenced in the announcement of his withdrawal from Michigan so as to redeploy money and personnel to Indiana and North Carolina. Much has been made of McCain's ‘game-changers' – those dramatic and even controversial moves that he seems to take pleasure in making to regain the campaign spotlight and momentum. The branding of Obama as a ‘celebrity'; the surprise selection of Sarah Palin as a running mate; the decision to ‘suspend' his campaign and possibly the first presidential debate due to the financial crisis, all fit into this mold. You, however, only need game-changers when you are behind; no one changes the game when they are ahead. And with the clock running out and people already filling out their ballots in states that allow early voting, if John McCain cannot take control of the political narrative and come up with a decisive October game-changer, his game will be over, and well and truly lost. But with limited time and options, what can he do to regain the momentum? Two presidential debates remain, one this week and one a week later. It is hard to believe that they will be any more decisive than the first presidential and the one and only vice presidential debates. In order for the remaining debates to cause a major shift in public opinion in McCain's favor, Obama would have to undergo a debate meltdown of major proportions in front of millions of viewers – lose his temper or say something that could never be explained away. Clearly, that is not going to happen. Unfortunately, for McCain, Barack Obama is no Joe Biden. In Obama, McCain faces an opponent who is cool, calm, controlled, and conservative in demeanor and is always ‘on message.' Indeed, the danger of any debate gaffe or unseemly lack of self control is more likely to be McCain's problem than Obama's. In the first debate, McCain's lack of respect for Obama was evident, but in the upcoming confrontations, he cannot be seen to allow Obama to get under his skin. Until last week's vice presidential debate, it seemed that a major game-changing option for McCain might be the replacement of Sarah Palin as his running mate. After the surprise announcement of her selection just 10 hours after Obama finished giving his acceptance speech in Denver, and her show-stopping convention speech in Minneapolis, Palin reenergized the Republican campaign to an extent that could probably not have been matched by any of the other candidates who had been considered for the vice presidential position. But then, in what looks now like a mistake, her public appearances were carefully controlled and scripted, and media access to her was almost completely denied. Naturally, the news then became that there was no news, and Palin found herself facing a ‘Garbo-speaks' situation. She had some rough moments in TV interviews, and calls were being heard for her replacement. Palin more than redeemed herself in the vice presidential debate watched by 70 million people, not so much by her substantive command of the issues as by the sheer force and energy of her feisty, folksy personality and self-confidence. While some may doubt that she is capable of fulfilling the role of president should the need arise, it is more than clear that this Annie Oakley of the right, in her own words, wouldn't “even blink.” So a last minute replacement of Palin with someone who has strong economic credentials seems much less likely since her debate performance. It would, however, be the mother of all game-changers and would certainly give McCain control of the narrative, but it would have to be done in the next two weeks and it is hard to see how it could be brought off without a massive negative reaction from the Republican base. However, it would be a shocking gamble, and we have to remember how much pleasure John McCain gets from springing his surprises. If, as seems likely, it is impossible to remove Palin from the GOP ticket, then McCain could still bolster the credibility of his team by naming some of the people who will serve in his administration – his Secretaries of State and Treasury and his Economic Advisor, for example. Big names added to the team, even at this late date, might help to reassure some nervous, wavering, independent voters in swing states. Other than that, what option does McCain have left that will wrest the narrative from Obama and deflect it from the economy which McCain admits is not his strong suit? It would appear that with time running out, the only thing left for McCain to do is to go negative as fast as he can; to try to make the election a referendum on Obama's character; to throw mud and hope that some of it sticks. It will not be easy. The public has been seeing Obama for more than a year now. The time for Obama to be defined in McCain's terms was several months ago. Calling Obama a risky, unprepared, inexperienced, naïve candidate who is all rhetoric and no record may not be an easy sell to those who have seen a cool, controlled, calculating customer who has carefully lowered the uplift of his speeches to make them more appealing (and perhaps more understandable) to the middle American voter he has in his sights. For going negative to work as a game-changer at this late date, McCain will have to go very negative, very fast, and let others do the down and dirty for him while he, staying above the fray, keeps his hands clean. And, of course, this provides the perfect role for Sarah Palin. With her engaging smile and pit bull instincts, she is perfectly capable of tearing the throat out of the Democratic campaign. She has already started by talking of Obama “palling around with terrorists” which has received a lot of play in the media. That use of the ‘T-word' is just the start. There is more and better (worse) to come. For his part, McCain is not without skeletons in his own closet, nor for that matter is Palin, and it will be interesting to see if Obama authorizes the opening of the closet door, or if he resolutely stays on-message until Nov 4. No matter what everyone says they think of negative campaigning, it does work, although it comes with the terrible risk of repulsing precisely the voters that you are trying to attract. However, John McCain has never been risk averse, and the next four weeks are his last chance to be president. So if he has an October game-changer, the time for him to use it is now. __
