South Africa's new president inherits the biggest political crisis of black rule and severe stresses in Africa's most powerful economy, but has little room for manoeuvre. The appointment of Motlanthe, a respected former union leader and quietly-spoken intellectual, was widely welcomed in South Africa when he was elected by parliament on Thursday, but he is expected to serve only until elections around April 2009. His primary task will be to heal the worst rifts in the history of the ruling African National Congress. Known as a peacemaker and respected across the deeply divided party, he seems well suited for this tricky task. However, he would face suspicions from backers of ANC leader Jacob Zuma if he takes a high profile, said Steven Friedman, a political analyst at Rhodes University. Zuma, whose rivalry with ousted President Thabo Mbeki caused the party crisis, is expected to become president next year. “I think that boxes him into a situation where he has to be a very low-profile president if he doesn't want to antagonise those people within the ANC alliance who think that he is trying to elbow out Jacob Zuma,” Friedman said. Nel Marais, a consultant at Executive Research Associates, agreed that Motlanthe's actions would be low key. “He is not supposed to steal the limelight from Zuma and...he understands that he is only a caretaker president.” Analysts stressed that continuity in Mbeki's economic policies will be key to restoring confidence badly rattled by the political crisis, but Motlanthe will be under pressure from Zuma's leftist backers to shift policy towards helping the army of poor yet to benefit from black rule. Mbeki's perceived failure to do this was a major reason for his demise within the ANC, which replaced him as party leader with Zuma last December. Economic challenges The question will be whether South Africa's problems can wait until next year for major policy initiatives. Inflation has hit the highest level since before the end of apartheid, growth has slowed with the rest of the global economy and a power supply crisis has hit key gold and platinum mines. Nevertheless, a period of calm, free of the political battles of the past year, with Motlanthe's steady hand at the tiller, may be enough to restore confidence and heal some of the ANC rifts. “I think the markets will be calmed, but there will be a bit of a wait and see...on his performance,” said Nic Borain of HSBC Securities. “His role will be to calm the waters and to have as peaceful a transition period as possible,” said analyst Allister Sparks. “Above all he is a peacemaker... I think he is a man of dignity and that will be his role in this interim period.” Motlanthe stressed continuity both in his first speech as president and in reappointing key ministers from Mbeki's rule, especially highly respected Finance Minister Trevor Manuel. The latter's resignation on Tuesday, as part of an exodus of ministers out of loyalty to Mbeki, severely rattled markets, until he made clear he would be available to serve whoever became president. But while Motlanthe paid tribute to Mbeki's policies, he also stressed that the fruits of Africa's biggest economy must extend to the army of black poor who have yet to benefit significantly from the end of apartheid 14 years ago. This is the tightrope that Motlanthe and then Zuma must walk, maintaining investor confidence while addressing social and economic problems, including one of the world's worst rates of violent crime and an AIDS epidemic. Critics of the ANC say the battle between Zuma and Mbeki diverted attention from these urgent issues. Analysts played down suggestions that the ANC was likely to split soon into Zuma and Mbeki wings, undermining its stranglehold on power, although they said tensions could continue inside the party. “I think at the moment people are hurting, people are very upset...but the split, I do not see it,” said political analyst Sipho Seepe. – Reuters __
