TURKEY faces a delicate diplomatic balancing act between its old and new partners after reaching out to countries beyond its traditional Western allies and strengthening its status as a regional power. Turkey, a NATO member which hopes to join the European Union, has in recent years built diplomatic and commercial ties with Central Asia, Iran, Russia, the Caucasus and the Middle East and may soon win a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council. It has no natural resources of its own, but has positioned itself as an energy hub for Caspian and Central Asian oil and gas exports transiting to Western markets. Since the end of the Cold War, Ankara has had the luxury of not having to choose between its Western and Eurasian interests. But it could now face some hard choices between its traditional allies and new, less predictable partners. This has been highlighted by the standoff between the West and Iran over Tehran's nuclear programme and by tensions between Moscow and the West over Russia's brief war with Georgia. “Turkey can't be all things for all the people all the time,” said Fadi Hakura, a researcher at London's Chatham House. “Turkey's multilateral engagement will force it to make priorities. If there's a conflict between Russia and the United States, what side is Turkey going to take?” Hakura said. Cold War bulwark Turkey, a member of NATO since the 1950s, was the alliance's bulwark against Soviet expansion during the Cold War. Since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, it has diversified its foreign policy, looking eastward and forging closer ties with neighbours such as Syria. This has created strains with Washington, which accuses Damascus of supporting international terrorism. The Islamist-rooted AK Party, which swept to power in 2002 has cemented ties with the Middle East, rediscovering a region which it was an integral part of under the Ottoman Turks. Turkey is now mediating talks between Israel and Syria. It also hosted a meeting of Caribbean nations and a summit of African leaders this summer, events linked to its desire to win a Security Council seat. “Turkey wants to leave its diplomatic footprint and become a regional player,” said Hugh Pope, an author on Turkey and an analyst for the International Crisis Group. “It is a question of prestige and it has brought peace with its neighbours but Turkey will have to soft-pedal on its foreign policy if it wins a seat at the United Nations.” Turkey has also offered to try to help resolve the dispute between Iran and the West over Tehran's nuclear programme, which the West says is aimed at developing atomic weapons. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who says the programme is intended entirely for civilian purposes, travelled to Istanbul last month on his first visit to a NATO country. But Ankara would face a difficult choice if it had to vote at the Security Council on whether to impose more sanctions on Tehran for failing to comply with the United Nations' demands over its nuclear programe. Ankara does not want Iran to have nuclear arms, but has trade and energy ties with Tehran which could be damaged by any further sanctions. How it votes on such issues could also affect it ability to mediate. Challenge for the West Russia's military intervention in Georgia highlighted just how hard the diplomatic balancing act could be for Turkey. A close US ally with good ties with neighbouring Georgia, Ankara depends heavily on Russian energy imports but incurred Moscow's wrath by letting NATO ships sail through the Bosphorus Strait into the Black Sea during the conflict. Ian Lesser, a researcher at the German Marshall Fund think-tank, said Turkey's ambivalence in the Caucasus conflict could be a harbinger of transatlantic disputes to come amid growing competition between NATO and Russia. “As relations with Washington and Brussels have cooled, some Turkish strategists have even begun to consider the possibility of alternative strategic alignments in Eurasia, and above all with Russia,” Lesser wrote in a recent paper. Alarmed by Moscow's war with Tbilisi, Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan embarked on shuttle diplomacy in the Caucasus. President Abdullah Gul also visited Armenia for a soccer match in an effort to reduce almost a century of hostilities between the two countries with no diplomatic ties. Turkey's increasingly independent and assertive foreign policy could present a challenge for the West if it were no longer able to expect Turkey to toe the line on its foreign policy, Pope said. Despite slow progress, Turkey says joining the 27-state EU remains its main foreign policy objective and has vowed to carry out reforms to bolster its flagging entry bid. But political analysts say Ankara's diplomacy of breadth rather than depth could distract it from its EU membership drive. Turkey faces diplomatic balancing act “It would be a mistake for Ankara to see its successful foreign policy as a substitute for the EU,” Hakura said. “It's Turkey's EU candidacy status that has made it attractive to many countries in the first place to establish ties.” – Reuters __
