Six months after a bloody crisis that nearly tore Kenya apart, an “odd couple” of former enemies is doing better than expected in leading the country towards recovery, although dangerous tensions remain. A huge and costly Grand Coalition government led by President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga took office in April after bloodletting by their supporters killed at least 1,300 people in the first two months of 2008. Some analysts say the trauma of January and February, sparked by Kibaki's disputed re-election, may gradually make way for a new era, with better politicians and greater concern for the economy over selfish regional or ethnic interests. “I think the crisis woke the country up. It helped the country to recognise the fragility of the economy. People started to see the connections between politics and the economy which Kenyans had not experienced before,” said Professor Calestous Juma of the Harvard-Kennedy School of Government. It took intervention by former United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan, Washington and African luminaries to push Kibaki and Odinga into joining a coalition castigated for bestowing a slew of 41 ministries and attendant perks on Kenya's notoriously greedy politicians. The coalition, Kenya's biggest, has also been attacked for setting a fashion, now followed in Zimbabwe, of ignoring democracy for the sake of peace. Despite the criticism, most Kenyans seem content with the arrangement, desperate above all for anything that fends off another shocking eruption of tribal and social hatred. “It is becoming clear to me that the coalition is the only thing that stands between Kenya and anarchy,” said Makau Mutua, chairman of Kenya's Human Rights Commission. A recent Gallup opinion poll showed that 63 percent of those surveyed approved of Kibaki and the government in general. Odinga, widely praised for his dynamism in the new job, won an approval rating of 85 percent. Bloated government Many previously sceptical analysts now believe the government could last until the next election in 2012, partly because so many people benefit from the bloated administration. “There really is a locked-in mutual interest in keeping the whole thing going because everybody in the political class is doing very well out of it,” said Patrick Smith, editor of Africa Confidential newsletter. “The Grand Coalition is a fix between the political elites promoted and financed by big business,” he said. Pressure from the business community, including leading figures from Kibaki's Kikuyu tribe, was a factor in ending a crisis that cost the economy at least $1 billion. The resilience of that same community has helped a gradual recovery. Odinga and Kibaki are a study in contrasts – which may explain how they work surprisingly well together. Odinga, a veteran opposition figure, is a charismatic crowd pleaser with strong grassroots connections and acute political instincts. Kibaki is a relaxed, patrician politician who shuns public appearances, likes to delegate, and prefers the golf course to stumping. Cartoonists invariably draw him with a golf club. Now in his second and final term, he seems perfectly happy to let Odinga, who loves the limelight, do the donkey work. While Odinga clearly has his eye on the presidency in 2012 and is building bridges even with fierce enemies like Justice Minister Martha Karua, Kibaki is more concerned with his legacy. This has allowed the two men to sidestep regional and ethnic pressures in the interests of the country, a rarity in Kenya. They have stayed close, ignoring regional lobbies and powerful supporters, both in announcing plans to reform the chronically inefficient port of Mombasa and to end illegal clearing of the western Mau forest, a vital water catchment. Analysts say Kenyan politicians realise they need to perform after about 70 percent of the old parliament was swept away in last year's election by an increasingly critical electorate now more concerned by economic issues than political infighting. “Political uncertainty is not what is concerning the people. What is concerning the people is the desire to see a long term economic programme that promises prosperity,” Juma said, adding that there was a strong desire to reduce the army of young unemployed men, who played a major role in the violence. Analysts say the key to recovery lies in Kenya's role as a gateway to east and central Africa, a factor harshly highlighted when the crisis cut trade to a swathe of neighbouring countries. “I think what is going to attract investors back is not because Kenya has returned to what it used to be but because it is a gateway to the region,” Juma said. But local businessman and economist Robert Shaw warns the economy is threatened by rising food prices, shortages of the maize staple likely to last until the end of 2009 and soaring inflation, running at more than 27 percent. Tourism, the second biggest export earner, was devastated by the violence. Despite recovery, it is still down by 23 percent. A glaring example of economic hardship is that markets now sell single slices of bread or eggs, Shaw said. “Yes there is a certain amount of recovery but don't overestimate it ... there are encouraging signs but we are not out of the woods.” Africa Confidential's Smith warns that even if the government lasts, unless it addresses the core land problem in the Rift Valley, cause of the most brutal violence, trouble could erupt again at any time. “This coalition would at best be an interim measure, a sticking plaster over a gaping wound that could easily open up again,” he told Reuters. – Reuters __
