Riyadh Metro to begin partial operations next Wednesday: Report    Al Okhdood halts Al Shabab's winning streak with a 1-1 draw in Saudi Pro League    Mahrez leads Al Ahli to victory over Al Fayha in Saudi Pro League    Al Qadsiah hands Al Nassr their first defeat in the Saudi Pro League    Saudi musical marvels takes center stage in Tokyo's iconic opera hall    Downing Street indicates Netanyahu faces arrest if he enters UK    London's Gatwick airport reopens terminal after bomb scare evacuation    Slovak president meets Saudi delegation to bolster trade and investment ties    Civil Defense warns of thunderstorms across Saudi Arabia until Tuesday    Saudi Arabia, Japan strengthen cultural collaboration with new MoU    Saudi defense minister meets with Swedish state secretary    Navigating healthcare's future: Solutions for a sustainable system    Al Khaleej qualifies for Asian Men's Club League Handball Championship final    Sixth foreign tourist dies of suspected methanol poisoning in Laos    Katy Perry v Katie Perry: Singer wins right to use name in Australia    Trump picks Pam Bondi as attorney general after Matt Gaetz withdraws    Al-Jasser: Saudi Arabia to expand rail network to over 8,000 km    OMODA&JAECOO: Unstoppable global cumulative sales over 360,000 units    Sitting too much linked to heart disease –– even if you work out    Denmark's Victoria Kjær Theilvig wins Miss Universe 2024    Order vs. Morality: Lessons from New York's 1977 Blackout    India puts blockbuster Pakistani film on hold    The Vikings and the Islamic world    Filipino pilgrim's incredible evolution from an enemy of Islam to its staunch advocate    Exotic Taif Roses Simulation Performed at Taif Rose Festival    Asian shares mixed Tuesday    Weather Forecast for Tuesday    Saudi Tourism Authority Participates in Arabian Travel Market Exhibition in Dubai    Minister of Industry Announces 50 Investment Opportunities Worth over SAR 96 Billion in Machinery, Equipment Sector    HRH Crown Prince Offers Condolences to Crown Prince of Kuwait on Death of Sheikh Fawaz Salman Abdullah Al-Ali Al-Malek Al-Sabah    HRH Crown Prince Congratulates Santiago Peña on Winning Presidential Election in Paraguay    SDAIA Launches 1st Phase of 'Elevate Program' to Train 1,000 Women on Data, AI    41 Saudi Citizens and 171 Others from Brotherly and Friendly Countries Arrive in Saudi Arabia from Sudan    Saudi Arabia Hosts 1st Meeting of Arab Authorities Controlling Medicines    General Directorate of Narcotics Control Foils Attempt to Smuggle over 5 Million Amphetamine Pills    NAVI Javelins Crowned as Champions of Women's Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (CS:GO) Competitions    Saudi Karate Team Wins Four Medals in World Youth League Championship    Third Edition of FIFA Forward Program Kicks off in Riyadh    Evacuated from Sudan, 187 Nationals from Several Countries Arrive in Jeddah    SPA Documents Thajjud Prayer at Prophet's Mosque in Madinah    SFDA Recommends to Test Blood Sugar at Home Two or Three Hours after Meals    SFDA Offers Various Recommendations for Safe Food Frying    SFDA Provides Five Tips for Using Home Blood Pressure Monitor    SFDA: Instant Soup Contains Large Amounts of Salt    Mawani: New shipping service to connect Jubail Commercial Port to 11 global ports    Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Delivers Speech to Pilgrims, Citizens, Residents and Muslims around the World    Sheikh Al-Issa in Arafah's Sermon: Allaah Blessed You by Making It Easy for You to Carry out This Obligation. Thus, Ensure Following the Guidance of Your Prophet    Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques addresses citizens and all Muslims on the occasion of the Holy month of Ramadan    







Thank you for reporting!
This image will be automatically disabled when it gets reported by several people.



Will Iraq squander the gains of the surge?
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 14 - 09 - 2008

The US troop surge did what it aimed: Calm Iraq down. But now, an increasing number of US officials are worried that the hard-won drop in violence may be only temporary.
The fear: that Iraq may squander this period of relative calm, failing to reach the difficult political deals the surge was designed to allow and thus setting the stage for another round of violence some day.
The worry is behind US military leaders' constant warning that Iraq's current calm may not endure. Defense Secretary Robert Gates was the latest, saying this week that US military commanders do not yet believe “our gains are necessarily enduring”. Their fears are sound.
At least 32 people were killed and 43 were wounded in a car bombing Friday evening in Dujail, a mainly Shiite town 80 kilometers (50 miles) north of Baghdad, Iraqi officials said. The explosion apparently targeted a police station but heavily damaged a nearby medical clinic, according to police officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to release the information.
Iraqi leaders face major challenges in the coming months, even as the effectiveness of the surge remains a hot-button topic in the US presidential race. If the Iraqis lack the necessary political skill or desire to compromise, those challenges would lay the ground for a new wave of violence. Ironically, the Iraqi government's newfound strength could tempt the Shiite leadership to resist calls for compromise with its rivals.
“We have to admit to shortcomings in the practice of democracy,” parliament speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani acknowledged this week. “And we are lacking a spirit of consensus.”
Exhibit A: The Iraqi government's delay in integrating Sunni armed men into the country's police and armed forces.
US officials insist the Shiite-led government of Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki intends to do so starting next month.
About 20 percent of the armed men many of them ex-insurgents who volunteered to join local security forces will go into the army and police. The rest will be placed in civilian government jobs.
But there are signs the Iraqi government, which distrusts the Sunni volunteers, is dragging its feet with potentially explosive consequences.
The US puts the number of armed volunteers at about 100,000 the overwhelming majority of them Sunnis.
But the Iraqi government is questioning the US figure.
Chief spokesman Ali Al-Dabbagh said this week that the volunteers number no more than 50,000, half the American count.
Last week, about 100 Sunni volunteers held an angry protest in north Baghdad, accusing the government of discrimination and of bowing to pressure from Shiite-dominated Iran.
Many of those volunteers were members of Sunni insurgent groups who broke with Al-Qaeda in Iraq and joined forces with the Americans, who have been paying them for nearly two years.
The former insurgents are Sunnis who deeply resent Shiite domination of the country since the fall of Saddam Hussein five years ago and could return to violence if they feel cheated by the Shiites in government.
The US hopes to ease Sunni concerns by giving them a share of political power through new provincial elections this year. But there again is the potential for explosive anger.
Many Sunnis boycotted the last local balloting in January 2005, enabling Shiites and Kurds to win power, even in areas with substantial Sunni populations. A new round of elections could give Sunnis the political power their numbers warrant and thus keep them from violence.
But Iraq's parliament has been bogged down in a complex fight between Arabs and Kurds over the new election law that's first needed. Lawmakers took up the measure again this week after their summer break, but without any sign of an early breakthrough.
Even if the lawmakers manage to approve a bill, the risk of violence in the run-up to the election would be high. The challenges lie against a backdrop of growing – if still quiet – concern that Al-Maliki may lack the skills – or the desire – to manage them. The government's success in clearing Baghdad and Basra of Shiite militias in spring and summer emboldened the prime minister, who previously had been widely dismissed as weak.
Now he's pushing back against the Americans in talks on a new security agreement, warning Sunnis against resisting plans to take over their armed volunteers and threatening force against the Kurds.
That has stirred fears that Al-Maliki is more interested in promoting Shiite interests than reaching accommodation with Sunnis and Kurds, and with his rivals within the Shiite community as well.
“What we see is very substantial progress. But that progress has by itself created a climate in which Iraqi leaders and factions feel much more secure about advancing their own cause,” said former Pentagon analyst Anthony Cordesman.
Iraqi politicians often see other sectarian and ethnic groups in the country “as rivals” rather than potential partners, Cordesman notes.
That could mean the surge, which so successfully lowered violence, fails at its larger goal of providing some space for political peace to flourish. - AP
Robert H. Reid is the AP's Baghdad bureau chief and has covered Iraq since before the US-led invasion. __


Clic here to read the story from its source.