Dr. Sami Al-Nuaim The International Energy Agency (IEA) had released last June 10 the first draft of the 2013 World Energy Outlook report (official report to be released in November) focusing on climate change. The IEA is an autonomous organization which was established in response to the 1973 oil crisis to help countries co-ordinate a collective response to major disruptions in oil supply through the release of emergency oil stocks and ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28-member countries, focusing on four main areas: energy security, economic development, environmental awareness, and energy engagement worldwide (www.iea.org). This early release focused only on the climate change addressing the previously agreed target by many governments to limit the long-term rise in the average global temperature to 2 degrees Celsius (°C). The report is sending strong signals to the organization members and to the entire world saying that under the current energy consumption and practices, this target will not be achieved and that the long-term average temperature increase is more likely to be between 3.6 °C and 5.3 °C which could result, in the long term, into more severe weather events (such as storms, floods and heat waves) to become more frequent and intense, as well as rising sea levels. The report mentioned that fossil-based energy consumption accounts for around two-thirds of global greenhouse-gas emissions, as more than 80 percent of global energy consumption is based on fossil oil, gas and coal. Hence, it is the key to limiting the undesired climate change and global temperature rise. However, it is very important to mention here that relating the global warming only to fossil fuel consumption is still a debatable matter. Are there other reasons that may contribute more to the increase of production of global carbon dioxide? Factors such as deforestation, inefficient coal burning, uncontrolled gases release from natural phenomena such as volcanoes, increase in the human and animal activities due to population's exponential increase in the last few centuries, low efficiency fuel burning specially in old factories scattered in some of the industrialized non-OECD countries such as China (the report claims that China made the largest contribution to the increase in global CO2 emissions), and poor Third World developing countries that do not have enough money to upgrade such old low efficiency technology, and bad energy consumption and efficiency practices, etc…. Although some experts in the energy sector still debate this, I believe that the energy sector is taking the leading role into addressing this global issue. This is fully supported by this draft report that shows some recommended policies that need to be addressed by the fossil fuel exporting and consuming countries, such as adopting energy efficiency measures at the energy generation and utilization stages and addressing any energy consumption demand increase by renewables. There are also some costly solutions that are being evaluated by some countries such as carbon dioxide capture and sequestration (captured and injected either in nonstrategic water aquifers, depleted oil & gas reservoirs). Another solution that is being considered by oil producing countries is the carbon dioxide capture and injection into near depleted oil reservoirs for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) objective. This solution hits two birds with one stone – you reduce the greenhouse gases and increase oil recovery. Other efforts that can contribute to this are improving the energy generation, transmission and use efficiency; adopting more stringent laws to enforce energy conservation practices; and finally, conducting research to study the possibility of using carbon dioxide as raw material for the development of new products. It is also important to mention that the summarized IEA draft report did not address the forecast energy supply, demand and price, specially oil & gas, as if these currently are second priority to IEA after the environment. I believe this reflects the positive energy outlook that was adopted lately by OPEC and I had been advocating for many months that the global oil market this year is nothing other than perfect with great balance between supply and demand and fare prices. Going back to the main message of this report, would the world meet the 2°C target in the long term? A question needs to be answered by actions, not words or promises. — Dr. Sami Al-Nuaim is a Saudi writer and can be reached on Twitter: @neaimsa. His articles can be read at www.saudienergy.net
