Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's demand for an immediate halt to the demonstrations across many Turkish cities is not being met. If anything, his vow to press ahead with plans for an Istanbul park which triggered the worst political unrest of his decade in power will probably only increase the tension. As thousands of Turks dig in for more anti-government demonstrations, Erdogan does not have many alternatives. As was in abundant evidence in the Arab Spring countries, warnings that demonstrations must cease are not usually obeyed by the masses, leaving those in charge to either allow the demonstrations to continue but look weak and vulnerable to further violations or come down on the protesters with a heavy hand that will probably only make matters worse. In the meantime, while scenes of the demonstrations can make for fascinating photos, they should not obscure the fact that Erdogan has widespread popular support, an authority built on three successive election victories. Erdogan remains popular especially among small-business owners and the Anatolian peasantry who make up most of the millions of recent migrants to the cities. Erdogan could unleash his supporters on the protesters. They have stayed mainly silent as the protests raged, but were highly vocal at Istanbul's main airport to welcome the premier home after a four-day visit to North Africa. Turkey has come to be seen as a model for nations emerging from the Arab Spring. The model has teetered a bit, making it tempting to compare Taksim to Tahrir. However, Turkey does not have the accumulated politico-economic problems of Arab Spring states and thus will not become one. If there is no possibility of the park protesters bringing the government down, the probable immediate future is a measure of stability mixed with a degree of uncertainty. Erdogan is being asked to meet the demands of nationalists, leftists, students, unionists and middle class professionals who accuse him of adopting an authoritarian style of government, and forcing Islamic values on Turkey, a mainly Muslim but staunchly secular nation. If the government is correct, then it must also deal with militant leftists associated with terrorist attacks who it says have also been involved in skirmishes with police that have spread to dozens of cities, leaving three dead and some 4,000 injured. Still, Erdogan is a formidable leader who does not scare easily. He was brave enough to deliberately leave Turkey in the midst of the violence and did not cut the trip short which would have made him look overly concerned. There is no sign of any immediate plans to remove the tent villages that have appeared in Taksim and in the capital Ankara but the tents and barricades have brought gridlock to part of central Istanbul and it is unclear how long the authorities will tolerate their presence. He has also made it clear that he has no intention of stepping aside. AKP garnered 50 percent of the vote in the last election, and Erdogan has no clear rivals inside the party or outside, with the opposition fragmented on the streets and in parliament. Against such toothless opposition, his party may well win again. Having presided over strong economic growth in recent years – under his rule Turkey is Europe's fastest growing economy - it is not easy to argue against Erdogan. His greatest failing seems to appear after his greatest successes: When he wins an election, he believes he is entitled to do what he likes until the next one.
