Thailand's political turmoil, if prolonged for another month, could cost the economy 40-62 billion baht ($1.2-1.8 billion) and may pull economic growth below 5 percent this year, the Thai Chamber of Commerce said on Tuesday. “If this is prolonged to late September or early October, economic growth will be cut by 0.5-0.6 points,” Thanavat Polvichai, director of the Economic and Business Forecast Centre of Thai Chamber of Commerce University, told a news conference. In that event, he said, the economy was likely to grow 4.9-5.1 percent in 2008, rather than the 5.6 percent projected previously. The economy expanded 4.8 percent last year. The damage would be bigger if the unrest lasted longer, he said. Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej has faced a street campaign to topple him since May 25. He imposed a state of emergency in Bangkok last week after one man was killed in clashes between pro- and anti-government demonstrators. A court is due to rule on Tuesday whether Samak was guilty of a conflict of interest in hosting a cooking programme for a commercial TV station while prime minister. If the verdict goes against him, he and his cabinet would have to step down, although the ruling People Power Party said it would renominate him as premier. Dusit Nontanakorn, vice chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, urged the government to lift a state of emergency imposed last week, saying that was needed to restore investor confidence. “It must be removed immediately as it only creates problems and much damage has been done,” he said. The lucrative tourist trade has been hard hit by the chaos, with several countries issuing travel warnings. Demonstrators have forced the closure of some airports at various times. Hotel bookings have plummeted across the kingdom, causing widespread concern as the travel and tourism industry brings in the equivalent of 6 percent of gross domestic product.
