Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, has confirmed her intention to lead the executive for five more years. The announcement was made at a meeting of Germany's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in Berlin, the DPA news agency reported. It caps off weeks of relentless speculation in Brussels over her political future, which has also been linked to NATO, and heats up the race to preside over the Commission, the most powerful institution in the European Union. Von der Leyen's nomination will be confirmed by acclamation in early March during the annual congress of her political family, the center-right European People's Party (EPP). The EPP had set 21 February as the deadline for submitting internal applications. By officially throwing her hat in the ring, von der Leyen immediately becomes the frontrunner, as the EPP is widely tipped to obtain the largest share of seats in the upcoming elections to the European Parliament. The Commission president is appointed at the discretion of EU leaders after taking into account the results of the European elections, meaning the party that comes on top enjoys the unwritten privilege of controlling the executive. Socialists and liberals usually divvy up the remaining top jobs among themselves. Throughout her first mandate, von der Leyen, a gifted speaker, agile negotiator and enthusiastic traveler, has fostered close ties with the majority of heads of state and government, some of whom, like Finland's Petteri Orpo and Sweden's Ulf Kristersson, have already said they would happily back her candidacy. Crucially, she has developed a good working relationship with Italy's Giorgia Meloni, whose hard-right group, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), is poised to make inroads in the June poll and further influence the political agenda. Even progressive politicians, like Spain's Pedro Sánchez, one of Europe's most prominent socialists, have signaled their willingness to support von der Leyen in a second term. As of today, the only prime minister who might forcibly object to von der Leyen's bid is Hungary's Viktor Orbán, who has been under the Commission's intense scrutiny for engineering his country's democratic backsliding. Von der Leyen's executive has frozen billions in cohesion and recovery funds allocated to Hungary over rule-of-law deficiencies and launched multiple infringement procedures to bring the wayward nation in line with EU law. The latest case, centered on the controversial "sovereignty law," was initiated earlier this month. In retaliation, Orbán has stepped up his attacks against von der Leyen and her team, going as far as diminishing her standing as EU leaders' "paid employee." In December, Orbán's government was heavily criticized for plastering von der Leyen's face on billboards distributed as part of anti-EU national consultation. "Let's not dance to the tune they whistle!" the billboards said. Still, according to the treaties, the Commission president is appointed by a qualified majority in the European Council, a rule that would, in theory, prevent Orbán from single-handedly blocking her second term should the other leaders endorse her. The Council's proposal then goes to the Parliament, where it requires an absolute majority to pass through. This is where things might get trickier for von der Leyen. In 2019, the president received 383 votes in favor, a razor-thin margin more than the 374 votes needed, illustrating the hemicycle's outrage over her surprise nomination. Unlike 2024, von der Leyen did not run as the EPP's lead candidate and was instead plucked from obscurity by French President Emmanuel Macron, who saw in her a conservative politician with moderate, flexible views able to please the left-wing faction of the European Council. Following that tight vote, MEPs largely welcomed the first woman at the Commission's helm and helped her advance her ambitious, transformative agenda, including the European Green Deal, the COVID-19 recovery fund, the Artificial Intelligence Act and a comprehensive reform of the bloc's migration and asylum policy. Lawmakers applauded von der Leyen for her decisive leadership in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which saw an unprecedented raft of sanctions on the Kremlin, irreversible plans to do away with imported fossil fuels and the opening of accession talks with Kyiv. Von der Leyen's captaincy bolstered her international profile and earned her the title of Most Powerful Woman in 2022 and 2023 by Forbes magazine. But in recent months, her legacy, particularly her green policies, has come under fire from her own conservative family, who are seeking to slow down the Green Deal to alleviate what they call the excessive bureaucratic burden on industry and agriculture. The farmer protests that erupted in January across several European countries have further reinforced the EPP's antagonistic stance and forced von der Leyen to change her tune. "Only if our farmers can live off the land will they invest in the future. And only if we achieve our climate and environmental goals together, will farmers be able to continue to make a living," the Commission chief said this month. "Our farmers are well aware of this. We should place more trust in them." Von der Leyen will be under continued pressure to fully embrace this right-wing shift, but doing so could cost her the key endorsement of socialists, greens and even liberals, who worry the EPP is appropriating the talking points and rallying cries of the far right. Still, the electoral cycle is set to be dominated by issues that favour conservative parties: backlash against environmental policies, irregular migration, the cost-of-living crisis and loss of competitiveness. Some studies, however, warn that many voters remain highly concerned about the climate crisis and natural disasters. Born in 1958, von der Leyen is the daughter of one of the first European civil servants and lived in Brussels until the age of 13, when she moved to Lower Saxony. She studied medicine and joined the CDU in 1990. Von der Leyen served as minister in every cabinet of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Her last portfolio was defense, an assignment that saw her immersed in a scandal over irregular contracting of consultants. On social media, she describes herself as "European by heart." — Euronews
