Saudi FM calls Indian, Pakistani counterparts to discuss developments    Al Hilal thrash Gwangju to reach AFC Champions League Elite semi-finals    Saudi Arabia cracks down on fraudulent Hajj campaigns, urges pilgrims to use official channels    Nammos Amala Resort to open soon with Saudi-Greek designs    Saudi Arabia completes 674 Vision 2030 initiatives, achieves 93% of KPIs as ninth-year milestone marked    Literature Commission inaugurates Saudi Pavilion at Muscat Book Fair    Saudi Minister of Culture holds talks with his Costa Rican counterpart in Jeddah    Alkhorayef praises advancements in Al-Kharj food industries sector    MHRSD: 80% of recruitment offices are non-compliant with regulations    At least 50 Palestinians killed in Israeli strikes across Gaza    Teenage girl killed in French school stabbing attack    Trump claims meeting with China after Beijing denies any trade negotiations    GACA chief chairs 16th meeting of the Steering Committee on aviation's strategy    Saudi Theater Commission launches its Work and Learn Project in UK    The season has begun — and one comment shook us all    Jennifer Lopez dazzles in Jeddah with a Formula 1 performance    Saudi Arabia open to expanded 64-team World Cup in 2034, says sports minister    Average life expectancy in Saudi Arabia rises to78.8 years    Film Commission launches 'Cinema' initiative to enhance content    Famed Philippine film star Nora Aunor dies at 71    Pakistani star's Bollywood return excites fans and riles far right    Veteran Bollywood actor Manoj Kumar dies at 87    Bollywood actress vindicated over boyfriend's death after media hounding    Grand Mufti rules against posting prayers and preaching in mosques on social media    Exotic Taif Roses Simulation Performed at Taif Rose Festival    Asian shares mixed Tuesday    Weather Forecast for Tuesday    Saudi Tourism Authority Participates in Arabian Travel Market Exhibition in Dubai    Minister of Industry Announces 50 Investment Opportunities Worth over SAR 96 Billion in Machinery, Equipment Sector    HRH Crown Prince Offers Condolences to Crown Prince of Kuwait on Death of Sheikh Fawaz Salman Abdullah Al-Ali Al-Malek Al-Sabah    HRH Crown Prince Congratulates Santiago Peña on Winning Presidential Election in Paraguay    SDAIA Launches 1st Phase of 'Elevate Program' to Train 1,000 Women on Data, AI    41 Saudi Citizens and 171 Others from Brotherly and Friendly Countries Arrive in Saudi Arabia from Sudan    Saudi Arabia Hosts 1st Meeting of Arab Authorities Controlling Medicines    General Directorate of Narcotics Control Foils Attempt to Smuggle over 5 Million Amphetamine Pills    NAVI Javelins Crowned as Champions of Women's Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (CS:GO) Competitions    Saudi Karate Team Wins Four Medals in World Youth League Championship    Third Edition of FIFA Forward Program Kicks off in Riyadh    Evacuated from Sudan, 187 Nationals from Several Countries Arrive in Jeddah    SPA Documents Thajjud Prayer at Prophet's Mosque in Madinah    SFDA Recommends to Test Blood Sugar at Home Two or Three Hours after Meals    SFDA Offers Various Recommendations for Safe Food Frying    SFDA Provides Five Tips for Using Home Blood Pressure Monitor    SFDA: Instant Soup Contains Large Amounts of Salt    Mawani: New shipping service to connect Jubail Commercial Port to 11 global ports    Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Delivers Speech to Pilgrims, Citizens, Residents and Muslims around the World    Sheikh Al-Issa in Arafah's Sermon: Allaah Blessed You by Making It Easy for You to Carry out This Obligation. Thus, Ensure Following the Guidance of Your Prophet    Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques addresses citizens and all Muslims on the occasion of the Holy month of Ramadan    







Thank you for reporting!
This image will be automatically disabled when it gets reported by several people.



How COVID-19 benefits coal: The case study of Vietnam
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 22 - 06 - 2020

The global energy industry downturn at the hands of Covid-19 has not only hurt immediate revenues, but is also affecting national infrastructure and energy policy planning. A Rystad Energy analysis shows that gas resources around the world will see development delays, with the construction of planned regasification facilities also at risk. Coal may benefit as a result.
The case of Vietnam is a good example of how a country with its own rich gas resources will fail to meet domestic production expectations, requiring an increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports instead. Planned regasification facilities also risk delays due to the downturn, leaving the use of coal as the only financially viable option to meet growing power demand.
Vietnam's strong GDP growth — about 6% to 7% per year — demands a growing amount of energy resources. With a hunger to satisfy the country's stable growth, Vietnam expects its power generation capacity will reach 125 to 130 GW by 2030 from the current 54 GW of capacity. In 2019, 33% of the country's power mix was met with gas and the rest was fueled by renewables and coal.
Even if non-gas sources meet their respective targets, there will still be significant gas demand as gas-fired power generation capacity is expected to grow from 7.2 GW at present, to 15 GW by 2025 and 19 GW by 2030.
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Rystad Energy had forecasted that Vietnam's domestic gas output would reach 10 billion cubic meters (Bcm) by 2025. Of this, around 60% of total gas produced was expected to come from new developments. Our updated outlook shows a much different picture, with the pandemic crisis and low oil prices postponing more than 200 Bcm of Vietnam's undeveloped natural gas resources.
Regardless of the present environment, the country is already facing declining domestic gas production. Nam Con Son Gas, accounted for approximately 30% of the country's total gas production in 2019, and has seen an average year-over-year decline of 8% since 2010. Similarly, gas production from other gas projects has seen 11% to 40% y/y decline between 2011 and 2019.
Of the 180 Bcm of gas resources discovered in the last 10 years only the Sao Vang and Dai Nguyet fields have approved field development plans, as the FID process has proven a long and arduous road. In the past decade only 11% of projects have been able to secure funding and the right to proceed with drilling and the development of new resources.
"Although Vietnam greenfield spending was expected to triple in 2021, with investments surpassing $1.8 billion, the present dual-crisis of low oil prices and Covid-19 has affected the capital spend ability of major stakeholders, creating a huge obstacle for monetizing existing available resources," says Rystad Energy's senior analyst Debika Chakraborty.
As a result, Vietnam will only produce 7 Bcm of gas in 2025, rather than the expected 10 Bcm, creating a 9 Bcm gap between domestic production and the 16 Bcm of expected domestic demand. Vietnam's goal to produce 80% of power generation with gas in the next 15 years now seems even less likely.
In order to avoid reverting back to heavy coal imports, Vietnam will likely begin increasing its LNG imports as early as 2022. Even so, importing sufficient LNG volumes will be difficult.
There are currently four LNG terminals in the project pipeline – Thi Vai LNG, Son My LNG, Tien Giang LNG Projects, and South West LNG – which together will have a combined capacity of 10 million tons per annum by 2025. However, the terminals, which are being constructed primarily in southern Vietnam, will only reach 1 million tpa import capacity by 2023 with the start-up of Phase 1 of the Thi Vai terminal. This will only marginally fulfill the demand-supply gap.
Given this, any delays in the other planned regasification projects will put Vietnam's goal at risk, a potential outcome, which seems realistic in today's volatile market conditions.
Thus, to ensure a stable and affordable power supply, Vietnam will likely have to increase coal imports, making it nearly impossible for the country to meet its goal and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20-30% by 2030. — Rystad Energy


Clic here to read the story from its source.