SANA'A — The National Dialogue Conference (NDC) is a landmark event in Yemen's political transition. As agreed in the power transfer deal mediated by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the NDC includes all the political parties, civil society representatives, southern movement, Houthis, women and youths. A total of 565 delegates representing different sections of society are involved in the NDC to build a roadmap for the future. In short, the National Dialogue has endeavored to bring all the political parties and other factions under one umbrella and prepare for a smooth transition in the aftermath of the revolution. The NDC will discuss issues such as formulating the constitution, government structure and political system, the southern issue, the Houthis, achieving national reconciliation and transitional justice, and other social and economic issues. Ironically, even as external forces are making efforts to keep Yemen united, internal fighting is leading to the country's destabilization. The lack of internal unity provides more space for external players to intervene in Yemen's internal affairs and thus the ability to influence the process of transition. How seriousness these divisive elements are will be put to the test in the national dialogue. The dialogue will also test the ability of political parties and other organizations to work in tandem to accommodate various interests in the national mainstream. The Southern movement poses the biggest challenge for the transition process. The grievances of the Southerners are many and they continue to remain unresolved. Southerners feel that there is unequal distribution of wealth between the north and south. The vast natural resources of the south are being exploited by the government and the benefits of which are going to the north. The south has the majority of oil resources, yet it remains underdeveloped. The feeling of continuing neglect by the government led the Southerners to initially decide to boycott the NDC. After many deliberations, they have been persuaded by the UN special envoy and President Rabbo Mansour Hadi to participate in the dialogue process. But their future course of action remains unpredictable. Houthis form the other major faction. They are fighting against the government accusing it of widespread corruption, socioeconomic negligence of the Shiites, permitting the growing influence of Wahhabism in the country and allying with the USA. The Yemeni government for its part has alleged that the Houthis have established links with Iran. The capability of the Houthis to launch an armed campaign also remains a cause of concern for the government, which fears that such a step may derail the efforts toward peace. Though Houthis have joined the NDC, they have refused to put down their weapons and this remains a concern for the government. It is too early to predict the outcome of the national dialogue process, but at present it looks like that it is the last chance for peace in Yemen. Various political parties and other major factions have been brought together for a comprehensive dialogue; and as all of them represent diverse interests, attempts to reach a consensus over any issue would certainly not be smooth. Such a dialogue is, however, absolutely necessary for an inclusive political process during the transition period. The worst situation for Yemen would arise if the NDC fails to come out with concrete solutions. In such a scenario, there seems to be no alternative in place, neither with the government nor with the opposition factions. Even the external forces, who are deeply involved in bringing the different factions to the table, do not seem to have any other alternative proposal. With several forces still discontented with the NDC, the failure of the conference will provide them an avenue to protest and that would lead to further instability in the country. If the NDC fails to reach a solution and allows the chaos and insecurity to continue, Yemen may plunge into long term chaos. — Agencies
