Tunisia is apparently weathering the storm which has been lashing the nation following the assassination of opposition leader Chokri Belaid. Although one million people took to the streets of the capital, attending Belaid's funeral and mourning the popular activist, the event was largely peaceful, testimony to the strength and resilience of Tunisian civil society. Yes, there were the inevitable clashes between police and protesters as the anger and tension over Belaid's killing is still being vented and felt. However, even though Tunisia was the first Arab Spring country, it has not experienced the acute post-revolutionary political violence and upheaval of its Arab brethren. Chalk that up to a relatively small population, a high literacy rate and historical isolation from the turmoil of the rest of the Middle East. Still, Tunisians who thought the violence and division had ended after the revolution now find themselves protesting on the same streets against the same riot police. The sights and sounds are reminiscent of the revolutionary uprising two years ago but a renewed promise by the government following Belaid's killing to appoint an administration of apolitical technocrats could remove some of the suspicions about the intentions and aims of the current Islamist-led coalition, hopefully defusing volatility. The drama being played out on the streets of Tunisia is not dissimilar to what has been seen in recent weeks in Egypt where the ideological clash between liberal secularists and ultraconservative Islamists is a battle for the future of the country. Another thread linking Tunisia and Egypt: The killing of Belaid which happened just as hardline sheikhs in Egypt have started calling for the killing of opposition leaders, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Mohamed El-Baradei. The clerics say on TV that the opposition should be punished by death for seeking to bring down a leader who has been elected by the public. Fortunately, the leader, President Mohamed Morsi, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, condemned the comments as tantamount to "terrorism". The Brotherhood also denounced calls for bloodshed and inciting killing “whatever their source.” And Prime Minister Hisham Kandil said the cabinet was looking into legal steps it could take against "all those who issue or spread edicts or fatwas inciting violence". Egyptian police are now being deployed around the homes of prominent opponents of the government. Egypt's government is apparently taking these death threats seriously because history has shown conflict can be started by just one lit match. The perfect example would be World War I in which more than nine million people were killed. The start of WWI, the sixth deadliest conflict in world history, was the assassination in 1914 by a Yugoslav nationalist of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary. The killing was the proximate trigger. Within weeks, all the world's great powers were at war and the conflict soon spread around the world. It heralded huge political changes, including revolutions in many of the nations involved. Assassinations can thus have extraordinary consequences. It is doubtful that assassinations in Tunisia or Egypt will lead to worldwide conflict, but the ramifications of such killings can be wholly unexpected and completely out of proportion when compared to the initial incident.
