IT has been a painful month for President George W. Bush in foreign policy and the challenges could get even tougher for the man who succeeds him in five months. The Russian invasion of Georgia and the resignation of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf both showed how limited Washington's ability to influence events has become in key flashpoints around the world. Bush's efforts over nearly eight years to nurture personal relationships with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Musharraf proved of little help. “It's been a very tough August for George Bush,” said Bruce Riedel of the Brookings Institution, a liberal leaning Washington think tank. “Two of the most critical allies that he picked in the war on terror, that he identified early on in his administration - Putin and Musharraf - have disappointed him mightily.” Critics say much of the decline in America's international clout can be traced to the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq which angered traditional allies like France and Germany and shattered the worldwide surge of sympathy for the United States after the Sept. 11 attacks. About 146,000 American troops are in Iraq and about $660 billion has been spent on the war. That limits Washington's military options elsewhere, although the Pentagon says it has enough forces available if needed.The good news for Bush's successor is that a steep reduction in violence in Iraq in the past year may allow him to disengage from the unpopular war. Democrat Barack Obama has pledged to withdraw almost all troops within 16 months while Republican John McCain has promised to stay until victory. Analysts list some foreign policy successes, including a new commitment to progress and disease reduction in Africa, a stronger partnership with China, renewed ties with Libya which was persuaded to abandon its nuclear program and North Korea's tentative movement away from nuclear arms. But critics say the failures eclipse the accomplishments. The next president will face a stalled Middle East peace process, an Iran which Washington says is bent on acquiring nuclear arms - denied by Tehran - instability in Pakistan, a renewed insurgency in Afghanistan as well as a resurgent, oil-rich Russia determined to reassert itself. Under Bush, the United States also failed to unite other powers to halt what it describes as a genocide in Darfur and lost international credibility on environmental issues like curbing global warming. Meanwhile, the rise in the price of oil has encouraged Venezuela's Hugo Chavez to preach and fund anti-Americanism around Latin America. “Whoever walks into the Oval Office in January is going to have his hands full,” said Gary Schmitt, director of advanced strategic studies at the American Enterprise Institute. Strained partners The Sept. 11, 2001, attacks defined Bush's foreign policy over two terms that end in January. Pakistan has been important to Bush's counterterrorism strategy, administration officials say. But despite cooperation from Musharraf, serious security problems remain in Pakistan's tribal region, where Taliban and Al-Qaeda-linked fighters have taken refuge and regrouped. Al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden is believed to be hiding in the remote border region of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Bush's support for Musharraf, who resigned this week to avoid impeachment, could make it more difficult to forge ties with the new government in Islamabad, which appears more reluctant to fight extremists, analysts say. “It is a huge challenge given the current Pakistani government is much less willing to challenge the Taliban than Musharraf was,” said Stephen Flanagan, international security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The deterioration in relations between Washington and Moscow, dramatized by Russia's actions in Georgia, may herald a new era of rough relations between the former Cold War rivals. Many Russians felt deeply humiliated in the 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Now, fueled by oil and gas riches, Moscow is flexing its muscles again. The United States needs Russian approval to pursue international sanctions against Iran designed to hold up its nuclear program. Such approval may be not be easily granted. “The combination of (Russian) anger and strength is a potent mix that the next president will have to deal with,” Riedel said. – Reuters __
