NATO's move to curtail regular contacts with Russia over its behaviour in Georgia will rob both sides of a vital channel for security cooperation -- but Moscow is in no mood to pay much heed for now. Analysts fear that joint efforts on the war in Afghanistan, counter-terrorism and other areas could fall by the wayside as NATO-Russia ties chill, to the detriment of all. But if the punishment agreed by NATO in Brussels on Tuesday was intended to trigger a rapid Russian pullout from Georgia and deter future incursions, it seemed unlikely to send a shiver through a Kremlin seen bent on pursuing a bolder foreign policy. “I do not think the Russians are taking any notice. In their current frame of mind, they are likely to harden their position towards NATO,” said Christopher Langton, Russian expert at London's International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). Russia's immediate reaction to the freeze in regular NATO-Russia meetings, plus a NATO promise to upgrade its ties with Georgia, was both vitriolic and dismissive. In Moscow, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused NATO of bias in seeking to prop up a “criminal regime” in Tbilisi. Yet its envoy to NATO derided Washington and its supporters within the alliance for having failed to muster a tougher response. “The mountain has given birth to a mouse,” Ambassador Dmitry Rogozin sneered in the margins of the Brussels talks. Even as Russian military trucks crossed back into Russia from Georgia on Wednesday, there was still no sign of the full and fast pullout which U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and other NATO chiefs demanded on Tuesday. Doors not fully closed The alliance's leverage was always going to be limited. Nobody in NATO has talked openly about going to war over the small Caucasus country, and the one act that would have grabbed Moscow's attention -- accelerating membership moves for Georgia and fellow aspirant Ukraine -- is blocked by Germany and others. Russia's role as a top energy supplier to Europe and a U.N. Security Council member key to diplomacy over Iran and elsewhere was a factor in the careful wording of NATO's statement. The outcome is that there will be no meetings of the six-year-old NATO-Russia Council (NRC) until Moscow has withdrawn its troops from Georgia and implemented the French-brokered plan to end the conflict. But many remain circumspect about whether Moscow ultimately cares about the freezing of a body set up largely at NATO's bidding and which has guided several joint projects without managing a true rapprochement between the two Cold War foes. “If this is another factor which Russia takes into account in making its decision to withdraw ... then I'll be satisfied,” Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, a firm backer of Georgia's aspirations to join NATO, told Reuters. But he added: “It depends on what comes out because as we know Russia controls the situation on the ground.” One Western diplomat at the NATO meeting said there was concern among some there that cutting off communications with Russia could hurt allies as much as it did Moscow. So far, Moscow has not raised doubts over a land transit pact through Russia for equipment intended for the NATO-led war in Afghanistan, nor joint work to combat the vast Afghan opium trade -- projects both vital to the NATO-led war there. But an early victim of the row was Russian support for NATO's multinational anti-terrorist patrols in the Mediterranean when the alliance announced last week that the Black Sea patrol ship Ladny would be barred from exercises. Picking up the pieces Yet analysts warn against over-estimating Russia's hand, and believe the West's leverage could increase over time. The row with the West has left Russian President Dmitry Medvedev facing an uphill battle to implement foreign policy goals such as his ambitious plan for a new European security framework, an aim which would inevitably require close contacts with NATO. “(NATO's impact) is limited but it is not inefficient. One reason is due to the fact that Russian foreign policy is in a shambles at the moment,” said Hans-Henning Schroeder at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). Schroeder noted that Poland's move during the peak of the Georgia crisis to sign a long-stalled missile defence deal with the United States was a defeat for Moscow, which had been railing against the scheme for years. “As soon as the smoke has settled, in two or three months time, people will try to pick up the pieces. In this context, NATO has sent a clear signal,” he said. But others were less optimistic and argued that Russia would continue to antagonize the West despite the consequences. “My fear is that a lot of pragmatism will be put aside,” said the IISS's Langton. – Reuters __
