Iraqi premier Nouri Al-Maliki appears to have painted himself into a political corner. Since instigating the trial in absentia of deputy vice-president Tareq Al-Hashimi, which sentenced the leading Sunni politician to death for his supposed involvement in Sunni death squads, Maliki has been losing the support of the Sunni community. Some might argue that he has also lost virtually all ability to influence Iraq's Kurdish minority which is busy building ever greater autonomy in the north of the country to the extent that the regional government in Arbil has been awarding exploration licenses to international oil companies, without any reference to Baghdad where the final authority ought to rest. It has been Iraq's president, the veteran Kurdish politician Jalal Talabani, who underpinned the notion that Iraq remained united. But the 79-year-old Talabani is abroad recovering from a serious stroke and there are many who believe that he will never be fit enough to return to his presidential duties. Now it seems that many of Maliki's fellow Shias are also becoming fed up with his leadership. On Saturday, the parliament voted by a majority of 68 to limit Iraqi prime ministers to two terms in office. Maliki's supporters have protested that no such provision was imposed on the presidency or the speakership of parliament. They have vowed to challenge the vote in the courts. Yet even if Maliki were to have parliament's decision overturned, it is clear that he now heads a National Unity government that has lost virtually all claim to be unified, let alone national. Among the principal sponsors of the vote that will stop Maliki from enjoying a third term as premier were legislators loyal to the Shia cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr. Maliki's problems are now being compounded by threats of open revolt by Sunnis in Anbar Province, following the shooting dead of five demonstrators and the wounding of 60 others during protests after Friday prayers last week. Soldiers who had sought to stop one group of anti-government demonstrators joining up with another appear to have fired directly into the crowd. Sunni leaders have demanded that Maliki's government investigate the shootings and bring the soldiers involved to justice. If not, they have vowed to start targeting the army. Maliki cannot afford to ignore this threat, since it comes from the Sahwa, or Awakening Council, whose tribal leaders played a key role during the US occupation in fighting Al-Qaeda. The terrorists would like nothing better than to have the Sunnis in open revolt. Maliki looks for all the world like a rabbit caught in the headlights of a fast approaching truck. His administration has proved increasingly incompetent and corrupt. It may even be doubtful that he can initiate a proper investigation into the Fallujah shootings as the Sahwa has demanded. What power he had seems to be slipping increasingly through his fingers. Waiting in the wings is Muqtada Sadr, who has even been politically canny enough to sympathize with the Sunnis. But Sadr's ties with Iran are thought to be even stronger than those of Maliki. There must therefore be considerable doubt that if Sadr leads the next government of national unity, he would seek to restore consensus among all Iraqi communities. However, the one thing that can be said in favor of the maverick cleric is that he would be unlikely to do a worse job of leading Iraq than Maliki.
