The recent Palestinian warning that Israel will be taken to the International Criminal Court if it builds new Jewish settlements is the immediate consequence of the Israeli elections which produced what is likely to be a government which advocates more serious efforts to end the conflict. Previously, Palestinian officials suggested that bringing their dispute with Israel to the ICC was an option, but this latest message sounded more like a threat - but not an empty one. The Palestinians became eligible to join the ICC after the UN voted to upgrade their status last November. To punish the Palestinians for taking their case to the UN, Israel began the systematic announcement of plans to build a multitude of settlements, some in E1, which cuts deep into the West Bank, and which, if peppered with Israeli outposts, will permanently prevent the creation of one contiguous Palestinian state. Thus, the Palestinians put Israel on notice that the ICC is just around the corner. This newly-found Palestinian confidence came not just because of its new status in the UN in which its officials are seated behind a nameplate that reads “State of Palestine”. There also is a new dawn in Israel following the shocking showing by a new party in the country's parliamentary elections which has raised hope of a revival of the peace talks. Tuesday's vote surprisingly ended in a near deadlock. The hawkish, religious parties that have been generally loath to offer the sort of territorial and other compromises needed to revive the peace process received 61 seats in the 120-seat parliament, while a camp of centrist, secular and Arab parties won 59. As leader of the largest party, Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to get the first chance to form a coalition, but in almost any scenario he will have to include Yesh Atid, the one-year-old centrist party appearing in the elections for the first time and with moderate views on peacemaking. The results were stunning after opinion polls had universally forecast a majority of seats going to the right-wing bloc. Lulled by pre-election opinion polls, Netanyahu may have assumed he could coast back to power at the head of a right-wing government eager to settle more Jews in occupied land. Instead, his top partner is likely to be Yesh Atid, offsetting Netanyahu's Likud Party which is dominated by hardliners who oppose Palestinian independence. But the positions of Yesh Atid, led by Yair Lapid, remain far short of Palestinian demands. Lapid says East Jerusalem, the Palestinians' hoped-for capital, must remain under Israeli control and has refused to say whether he accepts a freeze in settlement building. Lapid has said he will not sit in a government that is not seriously pursuing peace with the Palestinians. However, the focus of his campaign has been mostly on meeting the needs of Israel's struggling middle class, raising questions about how hard he will push on the peace issue in what could be weeks of coalition talks with Netanyahu. If Netanyahu reaches a power-sharing deal with Lapid, it remains far from clear whether it will be enough to restart talks. The poll results say the chances are almost 50-50, which are much better odds than before.
