JEDDAH – Global warming will have potentially devastating impact on Arab countries, the World Bank said in its MENA Development Report “Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries". Arab countries are located in a hyper-arid to arid region—less than 0.2 on the Aridity Index (AI)—with pockets of semiarid areas (between 0.2 and 0.5 AI). There are some temperate zones in coastal North Africa, the eastern Mediterranean, and equatorial areas in southern Somalia and the Comoros. There are snow-classified areas in the mountains of Algeria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Morocco. Environmental challenges in the Arab world include water scarcity, with the lowest freshwater resource endowment in the world; very low and variable precipitation; and excessive exposure to extreme events, including drought and desertification. This demanding environment, combined with a high poverty rate, makes the Arab region among the world's most vulnerable regions to climate change. If no drastic measures are taken to reduce the impacts of climate change, the region will be exposed to reduced agricultural productivity and incomes, a higher likelihood of drought and heat waves, a long-term reduction in water supplies, and the loss of low-lying coastal areas through sea-level rise. This climate exposure will have considerable implications for human settlements and socioeconomic systems (IPCC 2007). Climate change is already being felt in Arab countries. Globally, 2010 tied 2005 as the warmest year since climate data began to be collected in the late 1800s. Of the 19 countries that set new national temperature highs in 2010, 5 were Arab countries. Temperatures in Kuwait reached 52.6°C only to be followed by 53.5°C in 2011.6 In addition to the warming climate, the frequency of extreme weather events is increasing. For example, in June 2010, the Arabian Sea experienced the second-strongest tropical cyclone on record—Cyclone Phet—which peaked at category 4 strength with winds at 145 miles per hour, killing 44 people and causing $700 million in damages to Oman.7 Also, 2010 was the second-worst year on record for coral reef dieback, which was caused by near-record highs in summer ocean water temperatures. The report's fundamental proposition is that over the next century global climatic variability is set to increase, and that as a result, Arab countries may well experience unprecedented extremes in climate. Temperatures may soar and rainfall might diminish. The report makes the point that adapting to changes in the prevailing climate is not a new thing for Arab nations. “For thousands of years, the people in Arab countries have coped with the challenges of climate variability by adapting their survival strategies to changes in rainfall and temperature," it says. However, the starting position is a tough one. 2010 was the warmest year on record since records began in the late 1800s and 19 countries set new national temperature highs, including five Arab countries. Kuwait set a new record of 52.6 degrees in 2010 and another new record of 53.5 degrees in 2011. Water will be a growing problem: “The Arab region has the lowest freshwater resource endowment in the world. All but four Arab countries (Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Sudan) suffer from “chronic water scarcity", and over half of countries fall below the “absolute water scarcity" threshold... currently the region suffers a water deficit (demand is greater than supply) with increasing populations and per capita water use, demand is projected to increase further, by 60 percent, by 2045." – SG
