Remarkably little attention has been given to the UN Security Council's approval of an African-led mission, supported by European governments, to assist the Mali government to retake the north of the country from Al-Qaeda-linked insurgents and their former Tuareg allies. The resolution proposed last week by France the former colonial power had for some time been opposed by the United States on the grounds that Washington did not believe the campaign to re-occupy northern Mali would succeed. Washington did not think the Nigerian military and forces from the other 14 fellow members of the Economic Community Of West African States (ECOWAS) would be capable of fighting successfully in the region's harsh desert terrain. It was instructive that both China and Russia backed the French move. In the UN corridors, Moscow's diplomats briefed that there was no contradiction in their country's continued support for the failing Assad regime in Syria since it was supporting incumbent governments in both countries. The Chinese view appears to be that they are continuing their policy of not interfering in the affairs of sovereign states. The disaster that befell Mali's northern region came at the start of the year, when a military coup overthrew the elected president Amadou Toumani Toure. The army claimed to be protesting at the government's handling of a Tuareg rebellion. Yet in order to sustain their seizure of power, the generals actually withdrew forces from the rebellious region allowing the Tuareg to takeover initially in cooperation with Jihadist groups. These allies then turned on the Tuareg, who despite armaments plundered from Libya or brought by former Tuareg fighters in Gaddafi's army, were unable to resist. The result is that a large swathe of the country bordering Mauritania, Algeria and Niger is now in the hands of Jihadists. There is a real fear that it will become a new base for international terrorist operations. The Security Council has thus approved the formation of the African-led International Support Mission in Mali (AFISMA), with both a political brief to negotiate with the rebels and a military component which is to overcome them by force. To this end, over and above troops from ECOWAS countries, European states, for which read France, will train and re-equip the Malian army. Yet the resolution spelt out no funding for this new mission. Nor was there a clear time frame for action. The danger therefore is that the UN resolution could be used as cover for a French military intervention in its former colonial territory. Since it ended its occupation of its West African territories, France has not been shy about providing covert military assistance to these countries. Paris' stake in the Mali operation is the greater because at least seven of its citizens have been kidnapped in the north. The clear risk therefore is that while appearing to be doing the Security Council's bidding and giving support and training to the Malian armed forces, French special forces will be carving out an operational area for themselves. There can be no doubt that the Jihadist threat from northern Mali is real and must be dealt with.
Nevertheless, this must not turn into another Western-led shooting war, which ignores the agenda of the local population and plunges the country into the same sort of political and security mess as did the 2003 American occupation of Iraq.
