VIENNA – OPEC does not see increased US oil output as a threat to its interests but is skeptical about current forecasts on the boom of American shale gas production, secretary general of the 12-nation group said Thursday. Abdullah El-Badry also said that figures supplied by Iran show it producing around 3.7 million barrels a day. That is the same amount as Tehran pumped before international embargo on its crude that took effect this year and had been estimated to have cost it hundreds of thousands of barrels a day in sales. El-Badry spoke to reporters a day after OPEC ministers agreed to keep their daily crude production target unchanged at 30 million barrels. OPEC, which accounts for about a third of the world's oil production, is projecting a slight fall in demand for its crude next year, and world inventories are well stocked, in part because of resurgent production by the United State, which is tapping into oil extraction from shale. The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) is predicting that America will be a net exporter of oil by the next decade and could overtake Saudi Arabia — OPEC's powerhouse — as the world's top crude producer by 2020. Analysts have suggested a looming dent in OPEC influence as a result. But El-Badry told reporters his organization “is not really concerned” about any increase in world supply due to US shale extraction. He questioned industry estimates that US shale extraction could amount to an extra three million barrels of oil a day within 20 years as well as forecasts of US energy independence. At the same time, he said any extra supply was welcome. “It's fine with us, it's another source of energy and the world really needs this oil, I don't see it as a threat to OPEC,” he said. Analysts had said that OPEC will likely cut its oil production next year as prices risk falling in reaction to higher output from top crude consumer the United States and amid a slowing of energy demand growth. OPEC's “overall interest is certainty in demand, and nobody can really tell whether this certainty in demand will be fully there,” independent energy market analyst Karin Kneissl said. – Agencies
