Japan's flirtation with nationalism is fading with its faltering economy, and with policymakers focused more on soothing consumers' worries than fostering patriotism, ties with Asian rival China are likely to stay calm. The ruling bloc's concern with bread-and-butter matters such as rising prices and pensions in the midst of a possible recession could, however, cost Tokyo goodwill with close ally Washington if it means halting a refueling mission in the Indian Ocean in support of US-led operations in Afghanistan. The Liberal Democratic Party's junior coalition partner is wary of pushing through parliament a new law to extend the naval mission past January for fear of upsetting voters before a general election that must come by late 2009 but could come sooner. Polls show most Japanese oppose extending the mission. “Popular opinion is not paying attention to sophisticated arguments about the alliance and international contributions,” said Takashi Inoguchi, a professor at Chuo University in Tokyo. “Economic and social issues are at the top, top, top.” In a sign of the times, debate over whether Japan's top leader should visit Yasukuni Shrine for war dead, seen in much of Asia as a symbol of Japan's militarist past, has been muted as Friday's anniversary of its surrender in World War Two nears. Japanese wartime leaders convicted as war criminals by an Allied tribunal are honoured at the shrine along with war dead. Trend persists with Aso? Experts say the trend is likely to persist even if the LDP's No. 2 figure, right-leaning former foreign minister Taro Aso, replaces dovish Yasuo Fukuda as prime minister, as many expect to happen if the unpopular leader falters heading into harder economic times. Reinforcing talk of a recession, the economy shrank 0.6 percent in the second quarter, government figures showed on Wednesday. “The agenda is being driven by economic issues at the moment and will continue to be, regardless of who is prime minister,” said Robert Feldman, chief economist at Morgan Stanley in Tokyo, He added that the shift was a plus for Japan and China's closely linked economies. “A waning of nationalism means that it's easier to construct cross-border economic ties,” he said. Junichiro Koizumi, prime minister from 2001-2006, sent relations with China into a deep chill over his defiant visits to Yasukuni, which only began to thaw when his successor, Shinzo Abe, decided to stay away from the shrine. Fukuda, 72, made clear when he took office last September that he would not visit Yasukuni, although one or two of his cabinet ministers are expected to make the pilgrimage on Friday. A moderate conservative, Fukuda has never been inclined toward Koizumi-like gestures. But Japanese voters' concerns with the economy mean nationalistic appeals would most likely fall flat even if he were. Abe's own “Beautiful Country, Japan” agenda aimed at creating a nation proud of its past got a thumbs down in a 2007 election. The opposition won control of parliament's upper house, where they can delay legislation, such as the bill to renew Japan's naval mission in the Indian Ocean. “Nationalism doesn't sell very well in Japan at the moment,” said Phil Deans, a professor at Temple University's Japan Campus. “Fukuda has learned this, and hopefully the LDP has learned this too.” History, of course, can still cause friction, a fact brought home last month when South Korea recalled its ambassador to Tokyo after Japan said a new textbook guide would refer to tiny, desolate islets claimed by both countries as Japanese territory. The dispute dates back to the end of World War Two, when Japan was expelled as the colonial ruler of the Korean peninsula. Japan has similar territorial rows with China and Russia. “The governments in all these countries broadly would like these issues to go away, but they are always vulnerable to being stirred up, especially when elected politicians want to distract people,” Deans said. Consumer is King But Fukuda, whose support ratings are still lingering around 30 percent despite a cabinet reshuffle this month, is concentrating now on trying to cheer gloomy consumers as much as possible within the constraints of a bulging public debt. Democratic Party chief Ichiro Ozawa, a seasoned campaigner who just might have a shot at ousting the LDP-led coalition in the next election, is also putting economic policies first. Office worker Mari Eto thinks that's just how it should be. “I want them (politicians) to deal with issues close to our lives, such as taxes and the way bureaucrats run everything in this country,” Eto, 36, said, as she walked through Yasukuni's spacious grounds one steamy morning this week. Aso, widely tipped to succeed Fukuda if he falters, is probably pragmatic enough to heed that message, although the lawmaker is also a bit of a wild card who has offended Asian countries with remarks about the wartime past. – Reuters __
