TAIWAN and Japan have come to Beijing feeling less apprehensive than they probably were in 2001 when their giant neighbor was awarded the Olympic Games, a testimony to Chinese pragmatism that has cooled regional tension. The Beijing Games fit a narrative set by the Tokyo Olympics in 1964 and continued with the Seoul Games of 1988 that show each in turn stepping forward and changing their international image. In China's case, President Hu Jintao is determined to present the image of a modern and powerful nation, but one whose rise is peaceful. Efforts to fold that into his neighborhood policy have been helped by changing political winds in self-ruled Taiwan, which China claims as its own, and Japan. “On the Chinese side they are more pragmatic, but it's a tango by both sides to make changes,” said Xiaobo Lu, professor of political science at Columbia University's Barnard College. Fang Ning, a political scientist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a leading state think-tank in Beijing, said that a few years ago there were several external issues that could have soured the bonhomie of the Olympic Games. These included differences over North Korea's nuclear ambitions and friction with both the United States and Japan. “But in each case, China, with the shared efforts of other parties, has succeeded in defusing tensions and improving ties... Japan is an outstanding example,” said Fang, who advises the government and also wrote an official report on political risks to the Games but stressed that he was giving his personal views. Bitter memories and distrust still haunt former war foes China and Japan, and although there was a huge cheer for Taiwan's athletes when they entered the Bird's Nest stadium for the opening of the Games on Friday, Chinese legislation still mandates a military attack if Taiwan formally declares independence. There are risks for both relationships in the months ahead that could deal a blow to the world's second-largest economy, and to its foremost trading partner, China, which relies on Japanese investment and technology. Taiwan, too, is banking on its new links with China to breathe life into its lackluster economy. Symbolism matters Right now, however, the mood music is unusually sweet. Hu visited Japan in May, the two sides then struck a deal on the development of natural gas in disputed waters and a Japanese warship called at a Chinese port, the first such visit since Japan occupied parts of China before and during World War Two. That was all made possible by the departure of Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who riled China with his visits to a was shrine seen in Beijing as a symbol of Japan's past militarism. In Taiwan, a president who had needled Beijing with his pro-independence posturing reached the end of his term and his successor immediately reached out to China, leading to the start of regular tourist flights across the strait dividing them. Beijing bowed to Taiwan's request not to have its team of athletes march into the Olympic stadium next to Hong Kong, which many in Taipei thought would have made it look like just another province of the mainland. It also invited a Taiwan leader to lunch with Hu and dignitaries from around the globe. Symbolism like that matters in the world of Asian diplomacy. Hu has spent his presidency working to prevent Taiwan from declaring independence, in contrast to the “push for unification” policy of his predecessor, Jiang Zemin, who menaced the island with war games and missile tests in 1996. The two sides have pushed down the road the question of signing a peace treaty, focusing instead on building trade and people-to-people links, but Beijing is thinking hard about how to end the stand-off. An economist whose contrarian views have previously caught the leadership's eye, Lu De, recently suggested revising China's planned “one country, two systems” formula for Taiwan and consider a federation or confederation. The risks of a downturn in relations with Japan are higher. Popular distrust of China is still strong in Japan and there is a good chance that the unloved prime minister, Yasuo Fukuda, will be replaced by the more hawkish Taro Aso, a security hawk who has previously made remarks angering Asian neighbors that suffered under Japan's past military aggression. “The people who are in power now in both Tokyo and Beijing really see it in their interests to promote and work towards stability,” said Andrew Horvat, a professor at Tokyo Keizai University and an expert in North Asia regional relations. “Of course, the history issue is here as a permanent irritant but that doesn't mean you can't try to control it and promote regional integration. That's where we're headed for the time being ... they have stopped yelling and screaming at each other.” Could that all change if Aso took over? “I think Aso is more of an opportunist than an ideologue, Horvat said. “But he's unpredictable.” – Reuters __
