Turkey is losing patience with the Syrian regime. Since the mortaring by the Syrian army of the village of Akcakale, in which two women and three children died, Ankara's stance has toughened considerably. The forcing down on Wednesday of a scheduled Syrian airliner by Turkish fighters as it flew over Turkish territory is a demonstration of this new harder line. The flight from Moscow to Damascus was found to have had highly-sophisticated Russian communications monitoring equipment on board, as well as some weapons. Once all cargo in breach of the arms embargo that Turkey imposed on Syria a year ago had been seized, the aircraft and its passengers were allowed to fly on to Damascus. Turkish jets now roar through the skies on the Turkish side of the border with Syria on a regular basis. Army commanders have vowed that they will return twice the fire of any bombardment from Syria. And indeed as what the Assad regime protests are stray rounds continue to fall on Turkish territory, artillery has answered with heavy fire. And in truth, it is unlikely that anyone is counting the precise number of shells. The government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems more than ready for a fight. It has long demanded that a buffer zone be created within Syria which could shelter refugees and allow a secure base from which international aid organizations could function. However, without Russian and Chinese backing, such a proposal will go nowhere in the UN Security Council. Meanwhile NATO countries, not least the US, have been pressing their fellow member Turkey not to act unilaterally. Erdogan has thus far heeded their warnings. He may also be taking notice of public opinion. Though there is general outrage at Syrian shells landing in Turkey, polls have shown that there is little appetite for direct military intervention. The Turks may be an extremely proud nation, but there is what amounts to a “war weariness” among the public at the ongoing clashes with the PKK, whose murderous insurgency in the east of the country is currently escalating. There have been attempts in Ankara to link the upsurge in PKK violence to the active support of Syrian Kurds, who have been largely left alone in their northeastern region by Assad's forces. Public opinion still however remains to be convinced. Turkey has been booming economically. This summer, as a military confrontation seemed increasingly possible, one Turkish columnist wrote that the country was more interested “in the profits of peace than the losses of war”. The Turkish generals however might be seeing things differently. Their dominant political role has been broken. A large group of retired or dismissed officers is sitting in jail awaiting treason trials. The military's responsibility to ensure the Kemalist secular legacy has been deemed no longer relevant by the present political establishment. The conflict against Kurdish terrorists offers few victories and opportunities to boost the military's standing. However a full-blown march into Syria, swatting aside Assad's army and air force to create the buffer zone for which Erdogan has called, could boost the standing and prestige of the Turkish top brass. All it needs is a “causus belli”, a single highly provocative act that will give the excuse for Turkish troops to march.
