DUBAI – The challenges faced by the Middle East maritime industry during the continuing global economic uncertainty will be top of the agenda at the upcoming Seatrade Middle East Maritime exhibition and conference. A host of international and regional experts will address the key issues, providing a critical insight into what turbulence lies ahead for international trade and how the regional maritime industry will be affected. “Globalization has led to astonishing increases in global trade which currently represents 30 percent of world gross domestic product and is expected to grow to 50 percent of world GDP by 2020. Therefore if the global economy slows, exporters are not immune, which then has a knock-on effect on the shipping industry,” said Chris Hayman, Chairman, Seatrade. So far regional trade has been relatively unscathed by the global downturn, with the GCC countries recording a trade surplus estimated at $520 billion last year. This year, a report by Qatar National Bank suggests a lower surplus of $493 billion in 2012, largely due to high oil prices, offset by import growth of around 3.5 percent. Broken down, regional heavyweight Saudi Arabia contributed $245 billion, UAE $94 billion and Qatar $79 billion. “Put into perspective that figure represents about two-thirds of the US's trade deficit and twice that of China's surplus, leaving the region's trade balance in a healthy state. But challenges could be on the horizon and with more than 90 percent of worldwide trade moving by sea, the shipping industry remains a vital commercial indicator,” added Hayman. However, in China, second-quarter 2012 GDP figures, showed economic growth running at its slowest pace since the first quarter of 2009, reflecting weak export demand from Europe, its largest trading partner. A recent HSBC report showed new export orders falling at their fastest pace since March 2009, China is not alone in this respect, other major exporters such as Japan and South Korea, are also feeling the pinch of weakening trade. China, the world's largest exporter, has a share of 10.6 percent of total world trade, which was estimated by JETRO to be worth $17.9 trillion in 2011, a 15 percent increase from the $15.5 trillion recorded a year earlier. “Although China's economy is slowing, it is still growing at over 7 percent, a performance that many governments around the world would relish,” commented Hayman. Meanwhile many economists see the euro zone, which generates 16 percent of global economic output, shrinking by at least 0.3 percent this year. The latest purchasing managers' index (PMI) which showed that August's eurozone composite PMI fell to 46.3 ‘a reading below 50 signifies contraction'. – SG
