Dr. Ali Al-Ghamdi The expectations of political pundits who are closely analyzing the situation in Bangladesh indicate that the bridle of political leadership in the country will remain in the hands of women at least for some more time. Since 22 years ago, two women leaders have been at the helm of the country's affairs as presidents of the two major political parties which rule the country one after another. These leaders are Begum Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina. Khaleda is the president of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). She is the widow of former President Ziaur Rahman, who was assassinated in 1982. Khaleda succeeded her father as president of BNP. Sheikh Hasina became president of the Awami League after the assassination of her father and founder of Bangladesh Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. He led the struggle for freedom that resulted in East Pakistan's separation from West Pakistan and becoming a new independent nation — Bangladesh. These two women leaders have led as prime ministers of Bangladesh, one of the most impoverished nations in the world with a rapid population growth but scant resources, for quite a long time. In the midst of the women's rule, a man reemerged in the political landscape recently when he announced his desire to become the next prime minister of the country. He is no other than the former military ruler turned civilian president, General Hussein Muhammad Ershad, who ruled the country from 1982 to 90 after overthrowing then President Abdul Sattar in a military coup. But after some successes, Ershad's rule was marked by a political turmoil, including street protests, which led to his defeat in the 1990 general elections. BNP, headed by Khaleda Zia, won that elections and Khaleda became prime minister. Khaleda who supposedly believed that Ershad was behind the assassination of her husband managed to put him behind bars after implicating him in various crimes. However, Ershad emerged victorious in polls from five parliamentary constituencies while he was in jail. That demonstrated his popularity in his home province in the northern part of the country. He is currently chairman of the Bangladesh Jatiya Party, one of the constituents of the Awami League-led ruling coalition, headed by Sheikh Hasina. Ershad recently visited India and met Indian President Pranab Mukherjee, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and National Security Adviser Shiv Shankar Menon. On his return to Bangladesh, he had an exclusive interview with The Daily Star newspaper in which he dealt in details his future political plans. Ershad told the newspaper that he wants to be the prime minister of Bangladesh in the next parliamentary elections. In the interview, he explained why he could be the next head of government. “If the Awami League, BNP and Jatiya Party take part in the next elections, none of them would get a majority to form a government. If the Jatiya Party got more than 60 seats, I would become the deciding factor and might become the premier, as neither Hasina nor Khaleda would be able to reach a consensus on forming a government," he said, adding: “At that point, I would propose to the Awami League or the BNP to fulfill my desire. This may happen as they (Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia) cannot stand each other and there is no possibility of (reaching) a consensus between them." The former president also spoke of another possibility: In the event of a BNP boycott of the elections, his party might win the polls as he believes that his party will bag anti-Awami League votes and the votes of BNP, which is closer to his party. Keeping this possibility in mind, Ershad said, the JP would walk out of the Awami League-led grand alliance and take part in the next elections independently. Ershad disclosed that he had already finalized a list of 200 prospective candidates for the next elections and reactivated his party's grassroots committees to get the desired number of seats. There will be 100 more seats to be contested and he said that there are many prominent people like former senior civil and military officers who have indicated their interest to join the Jatiya Party and who will be nominated for election as they have great chances of winning. Visualizing his government if he wins in the elections, Ershad said people with expertise as well as competent leaders of other parties would be appointed ministers in the central government to ensure the country's quick development. “It will be a government of national unity comprising all parties to be represented in parliament," he said. Replying to queries about the outcome of his visit to India, Ershad said that Indian leaders wanted to see a peaceful and smooth transition of power through election. They want to see a peaceful neighbor and a continuation of democracy instead of undemocratic forces stepping in and posing a threat to the religious minority. Ershad added that Indian leaders assured him that they would not do anything that would harm Bangladesh and that they were ready to resolve outstanding bilateral issues between the two countries like sharing Teesta water and assessing the environmental and socio-economic impact of the proposed Tipaimukh dam. Asked how he evaluated the present government in which his party is also a partner, the former military ruler said that although the government has many successes there were also failures. The main thing is that the perception of people about the government is negative. “My party and I own a part of the responsibility for this. This is the reason why I decided to take part in the forthcoming elections," he said. India's latest intelligence reports pointed to New Delhi's apprehension about the falling popularity of the ruling Awami League coalition. According to the report, about 73 percent of the people are unhappy with the government. Therefore, Indians are wary of the prospect of Khaleda Zia returning to power after contesting the elections in coalition with the Jamaat-e-Islami. Perhaps, Indian officials do not want such a political scenario to happen and are encouraging Ershad — with whom they had close contacts for about eight years while he was the ruler of Bangladesh — to take once again the political leadership of the country. As an observer of the political developments in Bangladesh, I see nothing surprising in the words of Ershad or the Indian intelligence reports about the Hasina government's plummeting popularity. Her government is preoccupied with putting on political trial prominent and respectable national Islamist leaders instead of concentrating on development projects, fighting corruption and working to serve the national interests. — Dr. Al Al-Ghamdi is a former Saudi diplomat who specializes in South Asian affairs. He can be reached at [email protected]
