Moody's upgrades Saudi Arabia's credit rating to Aa3 with stable outlook    Riyadh Metro to begin partial operations next Wednesday: Report    Al Okhdood halts Al Shabab's winning streak with a 1-1 draw in Saudi Pro League    Mahrez leads Al Ahli to victory over Al Fayha in Saudi Pro League    Al Qadsiah hands Al Nassr their first defeat in the Saudi Pro League    Saudi musical marvels takes center stage in Tokyo's iconic opera hall    Downing Street indicates Netanyahu faces arrest if he enters UK    London's Gatwick airport reopens terminal after bomb scare evacuation    Civil Defense warns of thunderstorms across Saudi Arabia until Tuesday    Saudi Arabia, Japan strengthen cultural collaboration with new MoU    Slovak president meets Saudi delegation to bolster trade and investment ties    Saudi defense minister meets with Swedish state secretary    Navigating healthcare's future: Solutions for a sustainable system    Al Khaleej qualifies for Asian Men's Club League Handball Championship final    Sixth foreign tourist dies of suspected methanol poisoning in Laos    Katy Perry v Katie Perry: Singer wins right to use name in Australia    Trump picks Pam Bondi as attorney general after Matt Gaetz withdraws    Al-Jasser: Saudi Arabia to expand rail network to over 8,000 km    Sitting too much linked to heart disease –– even if you work out    Denmark's Victoria Kjær Theilvig wins Miss Universe 2024    Order vs. Morality: Lessons from New York's 1977 Blackout    India puts blockbuster Pakistani film on hold    The Vikings and the Islamic world    Filipino pilgrim's incredible evolution from an enemy of Islam to its staunch advocate    Exotic Taif Roses Simulation Performed at Taif Rose Festival    Asian shares mixed Tuesday    Weather Forecast for Tuesday    Saudi Tourism Authority Participates in Arabian Travel Market Exhibition in Dubai    Minister of Industry Announces 50 Investment Opportunities Worth over SAR 96 Billion in Machinery, Equipment Sector    HRH Crown Prince Offers Condolences to Crown Prince of Kuwait on Death of Sheikh Fawaz Salman Abdullah Al-Ali Al-Malek Al-Sabah    HRH Crown Prince Congratulates Santiago Peña on Winning Presidential Election in Paraguay    SDAIA Launches 1st Phase of 'Elevate Program' to Train 1,000 Women on Data, AI    41 Saudi Citizens and 171 Others from Brotherly and Friendly Countries Arrive in Saudi Arabia from Sudan    Saudi Arabia Hosts 1st Meeting of Arab Authorities Controlling Medicines    General Directorate of Narcotics Control Foils Attempt to Smuggle over 5 Million Amphetamine Pills    NAVI Javelins Crowned as Champions of Women's Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (CS:GO) Competitions    Saudi Karate Team Wins Four Medals in World Youth League Championship    Third Edition of FIFA Forward Program Kicks off in Riyadh    Evacuated from Sudan, 187 Nationals from Several Countries Arrive in Jeddah    SPA Documents Thajjud Prayer at Prophet's Mosque in Madinah    SFDA Recommends to Test Blood Sugar at Home Two or Three Hours after Meals    SFDA Offers Various Recommendations for Safe Food Frying    SFDA Provides Five Tips for Using Home Blood Pressure Monitor    SFDA: Instant Soup Contains Large Amounts of Salt    Mawani: New shipping service to connect Jubail Commercial Port to 11 global ports    Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Delivers Speech to Pilgrims, Citizens, Residents and Muslims around the World    Sheikh Al-Issa in Arafah's Sermon: Allaah Blessed You by Making It Easy for You to Carry out This Obligation. Thus, Ensure Following the Guidance of Your Prophet    Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques addresses citizens and all Muslims on the occasion of the Holy month of Ramadan    







Thank you for reporting!
This image will be automatically disabled when it gets reported by several people.



Global oil demand to rise 0.9mbd in 2012
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 03 - 09 - 2012

JEDDAH – Global oil demand is expected to rise by 0.8 - 0.9 million barrels per day (around 1 percent) in 2012, above last year's increment though below the historic average, the latest Kuwait Economic Brief, published by the National Bank of Kuwait (NBK), said.
Demand in non-OECD countries is seen rising by around 1.2 mbpd (2.9 percent), while OECD demand is expected to fall by up to 0.4 mbpd (-1.0 percent), it said.
The Centre for Global Energy Studies (CGES) takes a more conservative view, forecasting total demand growth of just 0.6 mbpd (0.7 percent), according to the report. It attributes this to impact of the eurozone crisis on growth in emerging markets.
A modest pick-up in demand is seen in 2013, though the structure of that growth - falling OECD demand more than offset by growth in emerging markets - remains the same. Demand growth is set to stay below its pre-credit crunch trend.
Crude output of the OPEC-11 (i.e. excluding Iraq) fell significantly by some 172,000 bpd in June to 28.4 mbpd, said the Kuwait Economic Brief. The bulk of this decline came from Iran where output fell by a sizeable 189,000 bpd to just below 3 mbpd, its lowest level in more than two decades. The figures for July - when the EU embargo on Iran came into effect - could reveal and even larger fall. Meanwhile, increases were witnessed in Nigeria (30,000 bpd), Libya (29,000 bpd) and Saudi Arabia (13,000 bpd), the report noted.
Libyan output fell by almost 100,000 bpd in June due to infrastructure bottlenecks, and is expected to fall further the following month as pre-election protests in early July led to temporary disruptions at the country's key oil export terminals and a shut-in of around 0.3 mbpd of production, the report said.
Total OPEC production (including Iraq) dropped to below 31.4 mbpd in June, a second consecutive month of near 100,000 bpd declines. After slipping in May, Iraqi oil production regained almost the entire decline, increasing by some 62,000 bpd in June to almost 3 mbpd. Significant increases in coming months will remain contingent on the dispute-related stoppage of Kurdish oil transfers to Baghdad, and perhaps the security situation in Syria.
Non-OPEC supplies are projected to increase by around 0.7 mbpd in 2012, with Opec natural gas liquids (NGLs) contributing more than half of the increase. The majority of non-OPEC supply growth is likely to come from North America. In total, if OPEC-12 output remains at its current level, global oil supplies could rise by more than 2 mbpd in 2012. Next year growth will depend not just on OPEC policy, but on North America and on the resumption of flows from Sudan, Yemen and Syria.
Oil market fundamentals are expected to loosen in 2012 overall on the back of rising supplies and moderate demand growth. However, much of that softening may now have occurred and - a crisis in the world economy notwithstanding - fundamentals could tighten again into 2013.
Using the CGES's more conservative forecast of a 0.6 mbpd increase in demand in 2012, and assuming OPEC output increases on average by 1.6 mbpd (with a small cut in output in 4Q 2012), then supply exceeds demand this year resulting in a stock build of 1.0 mbpd. But since most of this took place in 1H 2012, the price of KEC remains supported at $90 to $100 per barrel in the second half of the year and begins to rise in mid-2013.
If non-OPEC supplies turn out 0.3 mbpd weaker than expected this year, then a smaller stock-build of 0.7 mbpd is expected, the report added. The price of KEC should, in this case, remain at around $100 per barrel for the rest of 2012 and rise early next year. Alternatively, non-OPEC supplies could turn out 0.2 mbpd higher than expected this year, partially as a result of the restoration of output lost to outages in the first half of the year. In this scenario, the recent price rebound is reversed, and the price of KEC falls to below $80 per barrel early next year, the report said. – SG/Agencies


Clic here to read the story from its source.