DAMNED if he does, damned if he doesn't. That's the dilemma Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda faces as he ponders a cabinet reshuffle to try to boost his ratings and break a prolonged political stalemate. Fukuda is expected to decide this week whether to revamp his cabinet line-up, which was largely inherited when he took office last September. Most pundits are betting he will take the plunge. “I think he has to reshuffle the cabinet or everyone will conclude he is not able to make tough decisions when they are required,” said Columbia University professor Gerry Curtis. “The question is, what message about his policy agenda will the new line-up send? If it's a clear message about what his government will focus on in the next few months, that will be welcomed,” Curtis said. Fukuda's opinion poll ratings, which fell below 20 percent earlier this year on doubts about his leadership, inched up only slightly after he hosted a Group of Eight (G8) summit this month, with two media surveys putting his support at 24 percent and 26.6 percent, up 1 point and 1.5 points respectively. But the 72-year-old could see his image suffer if he appears at the mercy of ruling party heavyweights in choosing ministers, or if his appointees turn out to be tainted by scandals. “He might appear weak and newspapers will be critical of him for going back to the old days, people taking turns (becoming ministers), and possibly with scandals,” said Koichi Nakano, a political science professor at Sophia University in Tokyo. “That's the worst scenario.” Reality bites Either way, a new cabinet would do nothing to alter the reality in parliament, where the opposition Democratic Party and smaller allies control the upper house and hope to force an early general election by stalling legislation. Fukuda is expected to convene an extra session of parliament in August or September, and talk persists that he could call an election in February to seek a mandate to break the deadlock that is foiling efforts to deal with matters from security policy to a fast-ageing population. An election must be held by late 2009. Should the cabinet reshuffle fall flat, moves to replace Fukuda could also heat up inside his Liberal Democratic Party. “It's pretty much back to the uncertainty and sense of drift that was somehow dissipated by the G8 summit,” Nakano said. Fresh appointments might be an opportunity to send a message on economic policy, including tax reform. But some analysts doubt whether Fukuda is strong enough to do so, given disagreements inside his party and the LDP's reluctance to tackle raising Japan's 5 percent sales tax as a way to repair tattered state finances for fear of upsetting voters. “The sales tax is the biggest issue, but they are not going to do this before an election at a time when the LDP is in disarray on the matter,” said Yasunori Sone, a Keio University political science professor. Financial market players were sceptical as to whether a new cabinet would revive Fukuda's fortunes or inspire investors. “Given that so much time has passed since Fukuda launched his administration and his support rate is the way it is, even if he brings in some new faces, it won't give an impression of change,” said Daisuke Uno, chief strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp's treasury marketing department. Japanese media have speculated that among those Fukuda wants to replace is Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura, perhaps with Yuriko Koike – a former TV announcer and one-time defence minister sometimes cited as a dark horse candidate to become Japan's first female premier. Fukuda might also try to draft Kaoru Yosano, 69, another potential successor and a proponent of raising the sales tax, but former foreign minister Taro Aso, seen by many as the frontrunner to replace Fukuda, is thought to be more interested in becoming LDP secretary-general than accepting a cabinet portfolio. Seiko Noda, 47, whose fortunes have recovered since she was temporarily ousted from the LDP in 2005 for opposing then-prime minister Junichiro Koizumi's plan to privatize the postal system, might be put in charge of consumer affairs, some analysts said. But Fukuda might be hard-pressed to impress voters. “I don't know if there is any eye-catching star to be picked,” Sophia's Nakano said. “I doubt he could have that sort of talent in choosing ministers.” – Reuters __
