Pipeline politics is heating up. The chessboard has been spread out and energy resources are mere tools in the emerging great game of this 21st century. A deal to supply gas to energy starved Afghanistan, Pakistan and India from landlocked Turkmenistan, through a $7 billion plus, 1,043-mile long pipeline - TAPI - passing through war-torn Afghanistan into Pakistan and India was signed last week in Ashkabad. At a capacity of 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year, the project would snake through troubled Herat and Kandahar provinces of Afghanistan into Pakistan and India. First visualized in the early 1990s, TAPI has been a recurring dream. The security situation in Afghanistan made it impossible. And interestingly the idea is being pursued now, despite the fact that with the NATO combat mission in Afghanistan coming to close, security situation could deteriorate there further. And in the given circumstances, how anyone could build and expect to secure a natural gas pipeline through war-torn Afghanistan remains a trillion dollar question. And on this geo-strategic arena is the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline. The tussle over IPI and TAPI is not mere economic, rather it has political dimensions too. IPI and TAPI are symbols of "New Great Game" being played out in the region, most assert. The US and its allies want Pakistan to abdicate IPI and pursue TAPI alone. India has almost done so. As of March 2012, India has ceased discussions with Iran and Pakistan on the project. Interestingly New Delhi's decision to move ahead on TAPI followed a visit to India by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. And in the meantime, despite moving ahead on TAPI, Pakistan seems pursuing the IPI too - with or without India. Quarters in Islamabad and Tehran are looking towards Beijing to replace India in the project. Peter Chamberlin in an interesting piece argues that all of Obama's emissaries have done everything imaginable to coerce Pakistan into signing-on to the mega-project, usually by portraying TAPI as something in Pakistan's best interests and the Iranian IPI pipeline as something harmful. And then he says, if the report that Taliban also want TAPI is true, then the US has once again performed another act of "jujitsu diplomacy," whereby a foreign entity's decisions are turned on their heads, so that blatant lies are swallowed whole, as if they were the only truth. The pipeline plot was actually a subtle form of arm-twisting, intended to force Pakistan into helping the US bring the war to a close. And Chamberlin then argues, "TAPI would be a reality by now, were it not for American obstructionism. By February 10, 1993, Bridas Corp. of Argentina had already signed contracts to build the pipeline with the Turkmen state gas company, Turkmenneft, but construction was blocked by Unocal of California lawyers, who hung the project up in US courts on legal technicalities. And interestingly Mr. Karzai was with UNOCAL as a translator continuing to work for them - until ushered into the presidency in Kabul. However, concerns about TAPI exist. Bharat Karnad, a security analyst at the Center for Policy Research in India, says "there are security concerns in Afghanistan and I don't see who is going to ensure uninterrupted flow of gas through the pipeline. The US supports this project but they're in the process of pulling out of Afghanistan." Air Cdre (retd) Khalid Iqbal, the former assistant chief of air staff of the Pakistan Air Force mentions too of hurdles haunting the project. To start with, route security is an issue, since the pipeline will transit some 730 kilometers through Afghanistan. Yet, another uncertainty is about sustainability of gas supplies from Turkmenistan. Questions exist if Turkmenistan will be able to meet its commitments for TAPI. And the retired Air Commodore then underlined that TAPI provides a cover for the Americans to maintain a potent military presence in Afghanistan, though for other strategic reasons. The prospect of building the pipeline under armed guard and then defending it for decades remains a formidable challenge, in terms of both manpower and cost. Indeed the overriding American objective to promote TAPI is plain and simple - to ensure that the IPI is effectively killed. The United States sees TAPI as an opportunity to give a knockout punch to Tehran. However, some analysts underline that TAPI's biggest benefit is its ability to create a regional vested interest in Afghanistan's security. By shifting some of Afghanistan's security burden to Pakistan, India and other regional players, the US can further reduce its role in Afghanistan. __
