A cat and mouse game is on! On the center stage is the issue of Iranian output. How much is Iran producing and, more importantly, how much is being sold to buyers is an issue of extreme interest to major global capitals. Washington and its allies insist the embargo is beginning to produce results. It has helped, they say, in mellowing somewhat the Iranian stand on the nuclear issue - the apple of discord - between Washington and Tehran. Iran has sent conciliatory signals in recent days, as Western governments prepare for nuclear talks with Iran, set to begin May 23. US officials say the building economic pressure increases the chances for a breakthrough in talks. "They are increasingly isolated, diplomatically, financially and economically," David Cohen, the US Treasury Department's undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, said. "I don't think there is any question that the impact of this pressure played a role in Iran's decision to come to the table." And as the energy chessboard is spread out, with each side making its moves and countermoves, eyes remain glued on Iranian output and sales. And in Tehran a growing emphasis seems now on keeping a tight lid on the actual status, resulting in all sorts of conjecturing and speculation. Whether the Iranian oil sales have been stymied by sanctions or not is thus of critical importance to the entire posturing game. With debate on the impact of embargo intensifying, OPEC interestingly decided, for the first time, to publish two different estimates of its production in its April monthly oil market - confounding the markets more. The first estimate is the one it has always done based on figures compiled by a number of defined 'secondary sources,' including Platts, while the second set of numbers, given out by OPEC, comprised of the submissions given directly to OPEC by member countries. And interestingly, both vary. In the case of Iran, for example, the secondary source estimate for March was 3.348 million bpd, down slightly from February and perhaps a sign that the EU and US sanctions against the country are having an impact on production. Iran's own submission to OPEC, however, was 3.755 million bpd, more than 400,000 bpd more than the secondary source estimate - this understandably from Tehran's view point. The data is thus open to interpretations. Iranian oil production fell 9 percent in the first four months of this year, pumping 3.2 million bpd last month, down 134,000 bpd from March, dpa reported using the OPEC figures. A released Platts survey of OPEC and oil industry officials and analysts showed the Iranian volumes dropping to 3.28 million bpd in April from 3.4 million bpd the previous month. IEA too reported fall in Iranian exports. OPEC's analysis, using secondary data sources, estimate that Iran's oil production has fallen by 152,000 barrels a day since January to 3.2 million barrels a day in April. However, in official submissions to OPEC, the Iranian output is reported to have gone up by 38,000 barrels a day to 3.8 million barrels a day in April. And quoting this OPEC report, Tehran Times reported Iran's oil output in April was 3.758 million bpd, 182,000 more than in 2011. Keeping the world guessing remains a major tool in this high stake game. And in order to dodge sanctions or obscure the impact, Iran's fleet of oil tankers have started to play "hide and seek" by disabling their tracking beacons, the IEA said in its monthly oil market report. Iran has been routinely switching off satellite tracking systems on its sea-bound oil tankers for more than a month, in order to conceal its actual position. The unusual tactic began early April and now affects a quarter of Iran's tanker fleet, the IEA reported. The move, a violation of maritime law, is only modestly effective in cloaking 1,000-foot-long tankers as they ply the oceans. Instead of transporting oil to customers around the world, 19 of its 34 ships are thought to be stationary, used only for "floating storage", the Daily Telegraph reported. The fact that Iran is using valuable tankers for storage suggests that onshore holding facilities at Kharg Island, believed to have a capacity of 23 million barrels, must also be full, some analysts believe. In the meantime, Iran complained that the websites of Iranol, the Iranian Oil Ministry, and the National Iranian Oil Company, were targeted by hackers late April. Markets are confounded, perplexed and confused. And that seemed the very objective of the entire deception exercise. Everything is indeed “fair” in war. __
