A looming state election in Bavaria, a sharp slowdown in the economy and a recovery of the German left could dent popular Chancellor Angela Merkel's political prospects in the run-up to next year's election. Buoyed by a rebound in the German economy over the past few years and a reputation for tough international diplomacy earned during her presidencies of the EU and G8, Merkel is more popular than any chancellor since World War Two, according to polls. But her personal popularity has failed to feed through to her party, the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), whose support has stagnated at around 36 percent. With about 14 months to go until the Sept. 2009 vote, Merkel's CDU remains 8-10 points ahead of the rival Social Democrats (SPD), the centre-left party whose own struggles have received prominent play in the German media for months. But with conservative support stuck well below the levels the party enjoyed before the 2005 election, the threat to Merkel and her hopes of a second term is very real. “Overall, the outlook for Merkel is mixed,” said Juergen Falter, a political scientist at Mainz University. The Bavaria vote on Sept. 28 is the immediate challenge for Merkel and her conservative camp. The CDU's sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), has ruled the southern state with an absolute majority for nearly half a century. However, polls indicate the CSU may fall short of the 50 percent mark for the first time in nearly half a century - a result which would be nothing short of a political earthquake in one of Germany's biggest and wealthiest states. “That would be very symbolic - it would boost the SPD and be very negative news for the CDU,” said Falter. Merkel relies on CSU support for power and big losses in Bavaria would probably lead to recriminations and sniping among conservatives over strategy. “The conservatives can only be strong if the CSU is strong in Bavaria,” Merkel told CSU party members on Friday. Hope for the SPD? Merkel's fortunes also hinge on those of the SPD who have been in disarray for months following an internal row over whether to cooperate with a far-left party. SPD leader Kurt Beck has seen his personal ratings slide and it looks doubtful he will run against Merkel. Instead, Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, whose popularity in the polls is second only to Merkel's looks set to emerge as her challenger later this year - a move analysts say could give the SPD a much-needed lift. Some polls suggest the SPD may already be climbing out of its trough - albeit very slowly. A Forsa poll this week showed the SPD up one point at 23 percent and an Emnid survey put it up two points at 27 percent. “It will depend a lot on whether the SPD succeeds in positioning their candidate for chancellor in a way which could neutralize Merkel,” said Falter. In this respect, Steinmeier - whose popularity rests to a large degree on his office of foreign minister - may be more dangerous than Beck for Merkel who also benefits from her image as a stateswoman on the global stage, say analysts. The uncertain economic outlook is a further threat to Merkel after two years of robust growth and falling unemployment. A global financial crisis, surging oil and commodity prices and a strong euro, which could hurt foreign sales for the world's biggest exporter, are expected to lead to a sharp slowdown in German growth this year. After a robust first quarter, the government is expecting an economic contraction in the April-June period and further weakness in the second half of 2008. Recent surveys show Germans are gloomier about the economy than at any time since 1990. That is bad news for Merkel's conservatives, who were expected to soundly defeat the SPD in 2005, but ended up squeaking by them by a mere one percentage point. - Reuters __
