The message from the first round of Sunday's French presidential election was less about the defeat of Nicolas Sarkozy than the fact that one in five French voters, in a high turnout of more than 80 percent, backed the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen. Le Pen's 20 percent showing was the highest ever by the National Front party whose leadership she inherited from her father Jean-Marie Le Pen. She had campaigned on an unashamedly anti-immigrant, ultra-nationalist platform that included France leaving the eurozone and the return of the French franc. In 2002, her father scored 16 percent of the national vote to make it into the second round against Jacques Chirac. Though this time the National Front came third, she gave a chilling promise to her supporters saying: “This is just the beginning.” Opinion polls suggest the first round socialist victor François Hollande is now in a strong position to win the final vote on May 6. Le Pen has said that she will wait until May 1 to announce if she backs Sarkozy. However pundits are predicting that many who voted for her are likely to abstain in two weeks' time, whereas communist-backed fourth place candidate, Jean-Luc Melenchon has already asked his supporters to rally behind Hollande. Sarkozy has the dubious distinction of being the first sitting president to lose a first round election since the Fifth Republic was created in 1958. He came to power in 2007 with promises to sort out France's finances and end the economic feather-bedding of high pensions, an extremely generous welfare system and an uncompetitive maximum 35-hour working week. However, hardly had he entered the Elysée Palace than the world financial crisis struck, in which he along with other world leaders could only follow rather than control events. By this year French finances had become such a mess that the country lost the economic glory of a Triple-A credit rating. Sarkozy compounded his bad luck with poor political judgement and an increasingly lackluster personal performance. Thus many see Hollande's stronger showing, not as a vote for the markedly uncharismatic and politically inexperienced socialist candidate, but rather as a personal vote against Sarkozy. This leaves France in a dangerous place. Hollande's spending promises look to be beyond the means of the French treasury. The eurozone crisis is far from over. If he wins in a fortnight, he will have seized a poisoned chalice. His socialist instincts could head France towards financial chaos and his lack of political experience may not alert him to the real dangers ahead. Those are quite clearly that, if the country is plunged into a downward economic spiral, popular unrest will spread quickly, possibly endangering the Fifth Republic itself. In the ensuing turbulence, angry citizens will cast around for scapegoats and seek radical changes. This indeed must be what Marine Le Pen is hoping for and why her pledge “This is just the beginning” assumes such sinister proportions. France's six million Muslims now have good reason to be concerned. __
