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Hollande win won't alter economic path
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 31 - 03 - 2012


BY DANIEL FLYNN
Reuters
The man who could become France's first Socialist president in nearly two decades may have turned his campaign rhetoric against bankers and the rich, but in office his policies would be guided by advisers steeped in commerce and public service.
Francois Hollande met some of his most trusted counsellors more than 30 years ago at the Ecole Nationale d'Administration (ENA), the civil service college that turns out industry leaders and top public officials.
The architect of Hollande's presidential program and his closest adviser, Michel Sapin, has been a friend since 1977 when they shared a room during their military service before ENA. Sapin, Francois Mitterrand's finance minister during the 1992-1993 European currency crises, comes from the Socialist party's moderate wing, like Hollande himself.
“Our priority should be making it easier to do business in France,” said Sapin, pledging to slash the red tape holding back French companies.
Under Mitterrand, Sapin was credited with battling corruption and seeking to improve dialogue between unions and business. One colleague who worked with Sapin on Hollande's program says a new Socialist government could seek to write into the constitution an obligation for companies to consult trade unions on business decisions, based on the German model.
Sapin, 59, is also capable of reaching out to left-wing Socialists, embodied by party leader Martine Aubry, Hollande's unsuccessful rival in last year's Socialist primary.
Another influential member of Hollande's year at ENA, which took the class-name “Voltaire” after the Enlightenment philosopher, is Jean-Pierre Jouyet, now head of the financial markets regulator. An expert on European affairs — having served as chief aide to EU Commission President Jacques Delors — and a former head of France's treasury, Jouyet has advised Hollande privately. But a period spent as junior minister for European affairs under conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy probably rules him out of a government position if the Socialists win.
The third member of the “Voltaire” circle is lawyer Dominique Villemot, Hollande's speechwriter and author of his “generational contract” scheme to tackle low employment among the old and young by twinning them at work.
Like several of those close to Hollande, Villemot and Jouyet are not just ENA graduates but “inspectors of finance” — an elite corps formed from the cream of ENA's talent. Designed to ensure government efficiency, the corps has been compared to a consulting firm within the state.
“One of the good, or maybe bad, aspects of France is the solidity of its administrative elites,” said Elie Cohen, an economist who has advised Sarkozy and Hollande. “Politicians have programmes but then the inspectors of finance say ‘no, that's not possible, it's technically not feasible'. And that's it.”
The possibility of Hollande winning the May 6 presidential runoff has raised concerns in some quarters that an end to Sarkozy's partnership with conservative German Chancellor Angela Merkel could leave the euro zone rudderless.
But behind Sarkozy, three officials have orchestrated France's response to the crisis, led by the secretary-general of the president's office, Xavier Musca, dubbed the ‘real finance minister' by some colleagues, and presidential economic advisor Emmanuel Moulin.
Whoever wins in May, Musca is expected to depart as sources in the Sarkozy camp say he is tired and wants a change. Should Hollande win, Moulin is expected to go too.
But the third member of the triumvirate, the director-general of France's Treasury Ramon Fernandez, could well stay.
Fernandez is not viewed as partisan and is held in high esteem by all sides. Under his stewardship, France has quietly achieved many of its aims, often overcoming scepticism from European paymaster Germany. Those aims included not just tempering the role of private creditors in a Greek bailout, but achieving more ECB action in combating the debt crisis and widening the powers of the euro zone rescue fund. __


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