RARELY has the French capital witnessed such an extravaganza as on 13July, when 43 heads of state and government launched the ‘Union for the Mediterranean' in the grandiose setting of the Grand Palais, and a day later attended a Bastille Day march-past down the Champs-Elysées, undoubtedly the finest parade-ground in Europe. The two events – watched over by some 10,000 police, gendarmes and Special Forces sharp-shooters - were a display of impeccable stage-management and of nationalist bravado. They were a morale-booster for the French and a triumph for President Nicolas Sarkozy's personal diplomacy. Many a head of state present must have envied his ability to conjure up such a demonstration of power and discipline. The military parade was brought to a spectacular close when six parachutists, landing neatly at the feet of the assembled leaders, unfurled French, European Union and UN flags. What importance can one give to these symbols? Sarkozy evidently wants to breathe fresh life into the near-defunct Barcelona process, launched in 1995, by tightening the bonds between the 27 members of the European Union and the states bordering the Mediterranean. One innovation is a co-presidency, now held by France and Egypt, which is intended to underline the shared ownership of the club between north and south. Sarkozy appears to believe that concrete projects like cleaning up the polluted Mediterranean, harnessing solar energy, managing water resources, establishing marine highways for container traffic to relieve congested roads, and enhanced educational opportunities for the young will eventually yield dividends in terms of better governance in North Africa and the Middle East, greater investment flows, and wider opportunities for the private sector. The hope is that these, in turn, will eventually lead to a greater respect for human rights, to progress towards democracy and even to peace. The Union of the Mediterranean, Sarkozy declared on 10 July, ‘is the best news for Middle East peace.' But, as with the Barcelona process, there is, of course, a hidden European agenda: the partnership is intended to check the import into Europe of unwanted illegal immigrants, as well as of terrorist violence, which remain major preoccupations of European governments. The really new element of the two-day spectacular was the welcome Sarkozy gave to Syria's President Bashar al-Asad, marking France's acknowledgement of his role as an essential player on the Middle East scene, with influence with Tehran, with radical Palestinian factions, and with Lebanon itself, where his allies have won a blocking vote in the cabinet. Syria has come in from the cold. This is a wholesale reversal of the policy of former President Jacques Chirac, who boycotted Syria after the assassination in February 2005 of Lebanon's Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri, Chirac's close personal friend. The new Paris-Damascus entente is also in stark contrast with America's continued hostility to Syria and its array of sanctions against it. Only this week, the U.S. Treasury, led by the neocon Undersecretary Stuart Levey, banned American dealings with Syria's largest private corporation, Syriatel. In an open challenge to American policy, President Sarkozy is to visit Syria in September and has pledged, in a joint statement with President Bashar, to press for the signature and ratification of Syria's Association Agreement with the EU. Syria is expected to send an ambassador to Paris in the coming weeks. There has been none since 2006. Sarkozy presided over a meeting between Bashar Al-Asad and Lebanon's new president Michel Suleiman – the two countries are soon to exchange ambassadors, the first time in their modern history – and between Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. Sarkozy was also briefed by Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyib Erdogan on the indirect talks Turkey has been mediating between Israel and Syria. All this activity would seem to indicate that Sarkozy is seeking to elbow out the United States from Middle East peace-making – at least in the dying months of the Bush presidency – and is also attempting to reduce Iran's role as ‘godfather' of the Syrian regime and of Hizballah in Lebanon. Syria, however, has so far given no hint that it is ready to loosen its strategic ties with both Iran and Hizballah. The conclusion some diplomats are coming to privately is that France is attempting to draw both Syria and Lebanon into its sphere of influence – countries with which it has historic ties. An allied aspect of French diplomacy would seem to be its flourishing partnership with Qatar, a small, rich and diplomatically highly-active Gulf state. It was Qatar which, with Syria's blessing, brokered a deal last May in its capital Doha between Lebanon's warring factions, leading to the election of Lebanon's army commander Michel Suleiman as President on 27 May; and it is Qatar which is now being called upon – by Yemen's President Ali Abdallah Saleh - to host similar talks in Doha between the rival Palestinian factions, Fatah and Hamas. Sarkozy evidently also hopes that Qatar will give a financial boost to some key projects of the new Mediterranean club. Among the ladies on the podium at the Bastille Day parade, Sarkozy's wife Carla Bruni, in a stunning mauve dress, stole the show together with the wife of the Emir of Qatar, Shaikha Mozah, clad in an equally elegant bright green outfit. Needless to say, the emerging axis of Paris, Doha and Damascus is not hugely welcomed by other major regional players, such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who harbor their own doubts about Syria's regional diplomacy. Now that the party is over, observers are totting up the gains. France, presiding this half year over the EU, has clearly scored a victory politically – and probably commercially. Its image shines bright. As for Syria and Lebanon, they had reached a deal well before the Paris meeting: Syria will recognize Lebanon's sovereignty – symbolized by a coming exchange of ambassadors – provided Syria is guaranteed that there will be no hostile government in Beirut, an aim achieved by the presence of Syria's allies in the national unity government. Syrian-Israeli talks are unlikely to make much real progress before there is a new – more even-handed – man in the White House next year. As for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, the Paris meeting did nothing to advance them, in spite of the Olmert-Abbas handshakes. Olmert's political and moral weakness rules out the possibility of real progress, as does the extreme fragmentation of Israeli politics, which allows extremist factions to blackmail the government if it makes even a tentative move towards peace. As Akiva Elder of the Israeli daily Haaretz put it the other day, ‘All (Olmert's) talk about peace stops a great distance before it reaches the IDF checkpoints and the settler outposts on the West Bank.' If Sarkozy and Europe truly wish to advance the Arab-Israeli peace process they must summon up the will to use real leverage on the parties – something the Bush administration has been too cowardly and too one
