wing president Nicolas Maduro wants to bring in a new constitution that would sideline the National Assembly now dominated by opposition legislators. Since the start of last month, 30 people have been killed in street demonstrations demanding that Maduro resign and call a new presidential election. He is proposing instead a citizens' assembly that would produce the new constitution. But the big question of course is who would make up this new body and to what degree it would be representative of all shades of opinion in the country. It certainly seems clear that it would be appointed not elected. And the obvious concern among opposition leaders is that the people Maduro would appoint would be drawn from among his leftist supporters. Even if, under the existing constitution, the president is entitled to call for the creation of such a constitutional assembly, this seems a risky way to seek a resolution to the current serious civil unrest. Then there is a question of how quickly the citizens' assembly will do its work on a new constitution. Regional elections are due to be held this year and the presidential polls are scheduled for December 2018. Opposition politicians suspect that these may now be delayed, not least if the new constitution brings in changes to the way elections are run. On top of this there seems the likelihood that the citizens' assembly may try to assume legislative powers that would put it on a collision course with the existing National Assembly. Whatever the details of any new constitution, it is obvious that its provisions will be rejected by Maduro's opponents. Therefore, the president's expressed hope that the new arrangement is a "way to restore peace" seems absurd. Indeed the exact opposite seems certain. Venezuela is on the brink of serious civil conflict. Maduro's late predecessor Huge Chavez, a no-nonsense paratroop sergeant did much to clear the military of commanders who opposed his socialist policies. The police have likewise been pruned of those who rejected "Chavismo". But the country's 80,000 strong army is largely conscript. The point could be reached where ordinary soldiers and junior officers may refuse to crackdown on continued civil protest driven as much by economic collapse as political disaffection with Maduro. In February, annual inflation hit 740 percent. The 60 percent salary increase that the president just awarded to all state employees, including the military, is unlikely to appease the hardship of ordinary working people. Maduro insists that his country has been brought to its knees economically by a capitalist conspiracy. There seems little doubt that Washington has had a role in its financial troubles, after US assets were nationalized without compensation. But the majority of the country's woes are self-inflicted. In seeking to reverse the disparity in wealth between a relatively small elite and millions of poor, Chavez stretched the state budget beyond breaking point. Grievous mismanagement at the state oil company compounded the economic difficulties. Despite soaring prices, the president still enjoys considerable popular support. But the only way to head off the very real threat of civil conflict is surely to turn again to the people. If Maduro held and won a snap presidential election now, he would disarm the political opposition and could use his mandate to seek a peaceful settlement. All other alternatives look grim.
