WHEN in doubt, go back to basics. That's what the BJP is doing in Uttar Pradesh. Staring at what looks like a humiliating debacle in India's largest state, the party has chucked the facile "sab ka saath, sab ka vikas" mantra and is pushing its core agenda that has seldom failed to deliver. No, the saffron party is not for the zillionth time promising to build the Ram temple at the site of Babri Masjid in Ayodhya. Of course, the temple remains on the agenda and it will until the party has squeezed the last drops of political mileage. However, now that the Supreme Court has proscribed the use of religion for votes, politicians have to be clever with their words. So trust Prime Minister Modi, the great communicator and master of speaking between the lines, to come up with this true gem: "Ramazan me bijli aathi hai tho Diwali me bhi aani chahye; Gaon me qabrastan banta hai to shamshaan bhi banna chahye!" (If electricity is provided during Ramadan, it must be available during Diwali too. If a graveyard is built (for Muslims), Hindus should get a cremation ground." Then he added, thoughtfully, lest anyone accuse him of hate speech: "Bhed bhav nahi hona chahiye," (There should be no discrimination!)" reminding one of Vajpayee. Clearly, the more things change for the BJP, the more they remain the same. The uninitiated may wonder about the connection of graveyards and crematoriums with electoral politics. But the people of UP have got the message. There's no evidence to suggest that the Samajwadi government, long accused of appeasement, is favoring Muslims over Hindus as it goes about dispensing the largesse of graveyards and crematoriums. The last thing the Muslims want or care for is a graveyard. I am sure the same goes for our Hindu brethren. But who cares about facts, as Yogi Adityanath said when confronted by NDTV. The idea is to sow the seeds of strife and it's successfully done. As the going gets tough for the BJP, Modi and his desperate followers are increasingly turning to the tried and tested antics. UP is terribly important for BJP. The party won a whopping 71 of 80 parliamentary seats in 2014 riding the "Modi wave". If the party doesn't do too well in these assembly polls, it's sure to have an impact on its showing in the 2019 parliamentary elections. Considering it is the heart of Hindi heartland and the Gangetic cow belt, the strategic importance of UP can hardly be exaggerated. The state has given eight of India's 14 prime ministers. Modi himself represents the state from Varanasi (Benares). Not for nothing it is said that the road to Delhi goes through Lucknow. Understandably, there's visible nervousness in the saffron camp, with Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah going all out to woo the voters. An upbeat opposition insists that UP is a referendum on the Modi government. Considering it's no one but Modi-Modi all the way in UP and other states going to polls, it is justified in its claim. It is his fierce, forbidding visage on campaign posters that stares back at you everywhere, just as it did in Delhi and Bihar. As if it is Modi who would be ruling from Lucknow. The dear leader's prestige is at stake. The fact that the BJP has not projected anyone as a chief ministerial candidate does not help. No wonder the party apparatchiks are quick to dismiss the suggestion that this is a vote on the Modi government, especially on the catastrophic effects of its ill-advised and atrociously implemented notes ban. Millions suffered as thousands of livelihoods were wiped out in a state known for its exquisite handicrafts and artisans. Traditional industries of cities like Aligarh, Benares, Kanpur and other cities, acclaimed the world over, have been hardest hit. And they are all likely to give their piece of mind in these elections. No wonder the BJP appears more than a tad desperate despite the unseemly family drama of the ruling Samajwadi Party that unfolded in full media glare and dragged on for weeks. The massive good will that Akhilesh Yadav, the young chief minister, enjoys has seemingly survived the Yadav soap. His image is that of a sincere leader with integrity. He has been successful in his efforts to provide good governance despite being nagged by his domineering father and manipulative uncle. The Muslims, nearly 20 percent of UP's 204 million population, have largely voted for the SP in the past many elections because of its promise to provide security. This promise has been repeatedly violated with the state witnessing hundreds of small riots in the last five years. The horrific 2012 Muzaffarnagar riots saw thousands of Muslim families driven from their homes. They still live in makeshift camps and cannot muster the courage to go home. Yet the community has stuck with the SP, largely because it seems like the best bet to keep out the BJP, whose politicians and numerous allied outfits have been behind Muzaffarnagar and trouble in other places. The SP-Congress alliance is seen as a blueprint for 2019 and may be the best model to take on the BJP in the rest of the country. If the alliance wins, Akhilesh could even emerge as a challenger to Modi at the national level. The Congress looks incapable of recovery anytime soon. The open witch-hunt by Hindutva groups in the name of love jihad, beef and ghar wapasi has poisoned relations between the Hindus and Muslims in the Hindi belt. Dadri, only 30 km from Delhi, also happened in UP. Muslims were once close to communities like Jats. All that has changed, thanks to the Parivar. So even 70 years after Independence, security — not education or jobs and development — remains the top priority for UP's Muslim, just like for their brethren elsewhere. If they are seen as voting for the party A or B en masse, who is to blame? They voted for the Congress for decades after the Partition without getting anything in return. Thousands of riots happened on the party's watch. The once affluent and influential UP Muslims, remain in the pits, the most backward in the country by every metric and yardstick. Despite its large Muslim population, the state doesn't have a single Muslim MP in this parliament. Notwithstanding this indifference and shameless exploitation by "secular" parties, Muslims have dutifully voted for them all these years, driven by the same fear and anxiety. The question is, who created this fear psychosis and sense of insecurity in them? And what does it say about the world's largest democracy? Still, the BJP seems surprised when the country's largest minority votes for a particular party. The truth is, this arrangement rather suits the BJP as well as its secular adversaries. They can use the community both as a bogey and a vote bank respectively for mutual benefit. Aijaz Zaka Syed is an award winning journalist. Email: [email protected]
