THE idea was always to present trade ministers with a few simple political choices rather than have them wrestle with intricacies of tariff quota underfill mechanisms, decoupled income support or bananas. But when ministers come to Geneva later this month seeking a breakthrough in long-running World Trade Organization (WTO) talks they will still face a series of complex technical issues. After a year narrowing gaps in the most sensitive areas of agriculture and industrial goods, the focus of discussions on the WTO's Doha round in the meeting starting July 21, WTO mediators say their proposals are now ready to go to ministers. But in the often arcane negotiations, everything is intertwined. An apparently straightforward political decision on how much to cut tariffs by is inextricably tangled up with import volumes of the various members of customs union, or consumption figures for processed foods versus fresh produce. So the question arises whether ministerial discussions on the technical issues risk derailing the negotiation - whose chances of success are put by WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy at only “more than 50 percent.” WTO mediators say their latest proposals aim to give ministers simple choices even on the complex issues. “The way it's been structured is an attempt to clarify the relatively straightforward political decision they have to make and avoid the technicalities,” said New Zealand's WTO ambassador Crawford Falconer, who chairs the farm talks. Contours of a deal The contours of a deal have been clear for some time. Rich countries like the United States and European Union members would reduce protection for their farmers by cutting tariffs and subsidies, opening their agricultural markets. In return they would get greater access to markets for industrial goods and services in the big emerging countries like India, China and Brazil, who would cut industrial tariffs. Some issues are now purely political, such as the call by African producers for cuts in US cotton subsidies bigger than other reductions in farm supports. The technical problems arise from exceptions to overall tariff and subsidy cuts providing special treatment for developing countries - in line with the Doha round's development mandate - and letting rich nations protect sensitive farm goods. Revised proposals from WTO mediators, issued on Thursday to serve as a blueprint for ministers' talks, have already elicited the usual mixture of condemnation and suspicion from Washington, Brussels, Brasilia and New Delhi. Seasoned observers of negotiations say the outrage is par for the course at this stage, and note that it is mathematically impossible for all 152 WTO members to lose out from a deal. “You go and negotiate in any bazaar and that's going to happen,” said one. “You play poker and that's going to happen.” Canada's WTO ambassador Don Stephenson, who chairs the industrial goods talks, says there is widespread agreement on his proposed mechanism allowing developing countries to trade off the size of tariff cuts with the scope of waivers they seek. Ministers must just agree on the numbers. “I think that the text is cleaner, the options are clearer, and so I'm relatively comfortable putting this text before ministers,” Stephenson said. Falconer said his revised proposals allowing developing countries special treatment on tariffs to protect farm products from import surges or price collapses, and to promote livelihood or food security or rural development, limit the scope for wrangling over details. Both Stephenson and Falconer said there was room to narrow gaps further before ministers come, and they hope negotiators will do so next week. One such issue is bananas - of great sensitivity for the producers, and the subject of one of the longest running trade disputes, pre-dating the WTO's creation in 1995. Current proposals offer greater and faster access to rich country markets for relatively efficient Latin American producers of tropical farm produce. That conflicts with other proposals allowing less developed growers in African, Caribbean and Pacific countries to maintain, at least for a time, their preferential access to EU markets. Falconer said separate negotiations to resolve this discrepancy were looking positive and he hoped to incorporate their results into his proposals in the next few days. – Reuters __
