The statistics are horrific. This year, one out of every 47 migrants who clambers nervously into a fragile rubber raft or aboard a clapped-out old fishing boat in Libya will not make it alive to Europe. They will drown when boats founder or they will suffocate packed into noxious holds of unseaworthy craft. So far, according to the UN refugee agency, 3,740 people have died this year, threatening to pass last year's toll of 3,771. The Mediterranean becomes far rougher and more dangerous in November and December. Until 2014, the migrant flows, which are controlled by largely Libyan but also sub-Saharan people-smugglers, operated a sort of season. Once the spring and summer with their generally benign sea states were over the number of migrant craft setting off became a trickle. But as Libya sank ever deeper into anarchy, the people-smugglers upped their game. One of the unspoken realities of the tidal wave of migrants through Libya is that there is a significant proportion who have been sent by middlemen in their own countries. It is wrong to believe that they have all taken the personal decision to try and make it to what are seen as the golden opportunities in the wealthy EU. Either to settle domestic debts or because of threats, some of these people are obliged to risk everything on the perilous journey through the Sahara. They are passed from hand to hand by different criminal groups. Once in Libya the traffickers demand more money, jailing migrants or forcing them to work to earn the next stage of their onward journey. There is no such thing as a through-ticket. When they finally make it to the Libyan coast, principally the capital Tripoli and the major smuggling center to the west at Zuwara, the migrants are once again obliged to work to fund the last part of their journey, the perilous sea-crossing. The Libyan authorities occasionally round them up. They are thrown into detention centers to which are also brought those caught at sea by the Libyan navy. After a recent visit to one of the Tripoli camps, the local UN chief condemned conditions as appalling and subhuman. The Libyans protest that they are doing their best but lack money to look after the detainees properly. The EU is about to start training 100 Libyan coastguard members in migrant handling. A German charity involved in finding migrants at sea wants this plan reviewed. It has claimed that a coastguard vessel last week aggressively interrupted a rescue causing the drowning of as many as 26 people. The Libyan navy has denied the allegation, though pictures published by the charity show a modern patrol boat with a machine gun and a crew in military uniform. The truth is that without stability, there can be no rule of law in Libya and the people-traffickers, who are widely assumed to be connected with different militias, will continue their callous crimes. The international community seems unable to bring rival Libyans together. It has backed a powerless Presidency Council in Tripoli which has been unable to fix electricity, cash liquidity and insecurity problems even in the capital. It is also unrealistic to think that with the return of strong government, the migrant flow will cease. Even under Muammar Gadaffi's dictatorship, people-trafficking operations, in albeit smaller numbers, still took place.
