In his speech at the Iranian opposition conference, held in Paris on July 9, 2016, Prince Turki Al-Faisal, chairman of the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies and former intelligence chief and diplomat, chronicled the legacy of friendship and cooperation between the Arab and Persian peoples, emphasizing their shared cultural and religious links. He also addressed the struggle by the Iranian people during the reign of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi in the revolution that toppled him. That same revolution, which was fueled by the blood of Iranian martyrs, brought Khomeini from Paris to take advantage of the situation and usurp the revolution to form an autocratic, fascist, religious regime. Prince Turki said: "Khomeini's regime brought destruction, sectarianism and bloodshed, not only in Iran, but in the Middle East as a whole". Applause from the excited crowd interrupted the Prince when he stated that "the Islamic world stands with the Iranian resistance". They chanted - in Arabic - "the people want to bring down the regime," which became the slogan of the Arab Spring revolutions of 2011. To that, Prince Turki responded: "I, too, want the downfall of the regime". The question is, does this conference mark the turning point and beginning of the countdown to the fall of the Iranian regime? It would be wrong to attempt to put forward an answer at this time, but observers of Iran and Iranian behavior may see some signs of indecisiveness, frailty and lost legitimacy. Discussion in this article will be restricted to three major areas: Firstly, the policy of zero friendships and neighborliness. The former Iranian Minister of Intelligence, Heydar Moslehi, claims that "Iran actually has control over four Arab capitals". Gen. Hussein Salami, deputy leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, affirms that "Iranian officials did not expect such a rapid cross-border spread of the 'Islamic Revolution' to reach Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Bahrain, Yemen and Afghanistan". In the same context, the Iranian president's advisor for minorities, Ali Younusi, claims that Iraq is "the capital of the new Iranian Empire". Therefore, Iran has adopted an aggressive and provocative behavior, blatantly interfering in the affairs of neighboring countries by continuously meddling in their security and stability and by inciting sectarian strife through its affiliate militia. To cite some examples, Iran backs the Houthis against the legitimate regime in Yemen, supports the criminal, illegitimate regime of Assad in Syria unreservedly, props up Popular Mobilization Forces and other Shiite armed militia that tamper with security and stability in Iraq, and provides unlimited support to Hezbollah, which stands behind state failure and the paralysis of state institutions in Lebanon. As a result, Iran's relationships in the Middle East are strained and all countries of the region stand against it. All Arab countries, either individually or through the Arab League, have denounced Iranian interference in their affairs. Even other Islamic countries denounce Iranian interference in regional affairs as witnessed in the statement of the Summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, held in Istanbul on April 15, 2016, which explicitly condemned Iran's "continuous" support for terrorism and "interference" in the affairs of the countries of the region. Thus, Iran has lost the Arab and Islamic "tools" to which it could previously resort in order to legitimize its revolutionary discourse and cover its interference in the affairs of other countries. Thus, it has become regionally and culturally isolated. Secondly, Iran's sponsorship of terrorism across the world. Iran is accused by the US and many countries of the world of financing, and providing equipment, arms, training and refuge to terrorists. Annual reports of the US State Department for terrorism categorize Iran as "the biggest sponsor of terrorism in the world". The reports also point out that "Iran is not ready to bring to justice senior members of Al-Qaeda who live in its territories. It also refuses to publicly announce their names. In addition, Iran allowed Al-Qaeda to operate pipelines through its territories, which allowed Al-Qaeda to access funds, and easily transport workers and operators to and from south Asia and elsewhere". The Saudi Foreign Ministry also published a detailed statement documenting copious examples of evidence of Iran's support for terrorism in the region and across the world since the outbreak of its revolution in 1979. Hence, due to its support of terrorism, Iran has lost international support and has become internationally isolated. Many companies are not allowed, either directly or indirectly, to conduct business with Iran as it is still accused of supporting terrorism. Thirdly, the erosion of brinkmanship. Secretary of State John Foster Dulles under the Eisenhower administration is considered the first to have used the term "brinkmanship" in the mid-1950s. In international relations, this policy refers to the practice of trying to achieve an advantageous outcome by pushing dangerous events to the brink of active nuclear conflict, with the aim of forcing the opponent to back down and make concessions. In International Politics of Recognition, Thomas Lindeman, one of the most prominent theorists of international relations at Université Versailles Saint-Quentin claims that Iran's adoption of brinkmanship policy (nuclear policy and revolutionary aid) was mainly intended to consolidate its internal legitimacy. Thus, Lindeman believes that Iran used revolutionary discourse and nuclear policy to form a positive image of its position of isolation, through which it sought internal stability and legitimization of Iranian decision-makers in the domestic arena. However, its policy of brinkmanship has started to erode, and the voice of the people is now being heard calling the regime to stop its interference and halt the loss of billions of dollars in pointless wars that only ignite the region. The people also look forward to normal relations with the world and to real development at all levels; economic, political, and cultural. Finally, these signs, taken together, may mark the beginning of the fall of "Wilayat-e-Faqih". Scenes, reminiscent of the popular protests in 2009 (the so-called Green revolution) or the Bazar revolution in 2011 may return to the fore, and this time the regime may lose control to a united popular movement and fail to suppress it. — Dr. Ibrahim Al-Othaimin is a Middle East affairs specialist and security analyst based in Riyadh. He can be contacted at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @Alothaimin
