THE first indication of how Britain's vote to leave the European Union will affect the global economy will come from business surveys, with the hard data to follow -- a lag that increases uncertainty over growth. Before Thursday's vote, most global economic institutions had warned of collateral damage from a British exit, with the International Monetary Fund listing the referendum as a key global risk. "A Brexit could do severe regional and global damage by disrupting established trading relationships," Maurice Obstfeld, the Fund's chief economist said when the IMF published a half-yearly assessment of the world economy in April. Central banks recognize the dangers and have made clear they will pull out the stops to calm jittery markets. On Friday, after the vote, government officials and investment bank economists were on guard. "The global economy was fragile before and is more so today," Citi economists said in a report. But whereas financial markets react instantly to shocks such as the vote for a Brexit, the deeper impact on economies takes time to show. The concerns of those who hire, trade and make business investment decisions can be left to fester and grow. "We will see the impact in consumer confidence and business surveys initially. It will show later in the hard data," said Sarah Hewin, chief economist for Europe at Standard Chartered Bank. Shockwaves hit Asian firms From Delhi to Tokyo, firms across Asia were scrambling to assess the impact of Brexit vote, with some saying fresh investments in the UK are off the table for now and their future in the country uncertain. As Japanese and South Korean corporate giants assessed the fallout of the vote and Indian firms with British interests watched their shares tumble on the Bombay Stock Exchange, analysts were bleak about Asian investment in the UK. Asian investors with regional headquarters in Britain — until today's referendum result a gateway to investment in the EU — have "a choice to stay or to go now", said Martin Schulz, Senior Research Fellow at the Fujitsu Research Institute. "Companies have to really rethink what to do, probably freezing their investment plans for quite a while," he said. "I think companies will not just rethink their investments in the UK. They will have to rethink their overall investment plans for the EU market." Schulz added that Brexit's impact would mostly affect Japanese investors. "It was very regrettable," Sadayuki Sakakibara, chairman of Keidanren, Japan's biggest business lobby, said of the result. Nexit, Frexit or Italeave? Britain's vote to leave the European Union fired up populist euroskeptic parties across the continent on Friday, giving fresh voice to their calls to leave the bloc or its euro currency. Right-wing and anti-immigrant parties in the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and France demanded referendums on membership of the union, while Italy's 5-Star movement said it would pursue its own proposal for a vote on the euro. Geert Wilders, leader of the Dutch anti-immigrant PVV party, said he would make a Dutch referendum on EU membership a central theme of his campaign to become prime minister in next year's parliamentary election. France's far right National Front party also called for a French referendum on European Union membership, cheering a Brexit vote it hopes can boost its eurosceptic agenda. Party leader Marine Le Pen celebrated the result by displaying the British flag on her Twitter page. "Victory for freedom!" she said. "We now need to hold the same referendum in France and in (other) EU countries." Her deputy, Florian Philippot said: "Our turn now #Brexit #Frexit."
