The recapturing of the city of Fallujah by Iraqi forces from the grip of Daesh (the self-proclaimed IS) is not only a major step toward regaining the group's last major foothold in Iraq's western Anbar province but a huge victory for the Iraqi army. In early 2014, Fallujah became the first urban area to fall into Daesh's hands before it overran most of Anbar and much of northern and western Iraq. Fallujah's capture could represent a significant blow to Daesh's morale, recruitment and funding. Being a mere 50 kilometers west of Baghdad, it might also relieve some pressure on the Iraqi capital as well. Daesh's defeat should equally bolster the morale of the Iraqi forces who after a series of slow but deliberate campaigns have begun to have some success. However, the military battle is only part of the story. The capture of Fallujah will present the Iraqi government with a major test. Fallujah is the heartland of the country's Sunni minority but the forces which liberated it have a significant Shia militia element. Can these forces prevent the mistreatment of local Sunnis? The government needs to show that Sunni and Shia forces can work together. Fallujah has become a test of whether Iraq can move back toward some form of unity or federalism. For many Shia political and militia leaders, there is now a momentum which cannot be reversed. They are already speaking of the huge sacrifices and the blood that have been invested in the fight against Daesh which they hope will make post-Fallujah Iraq different from the country it was before and be paid back fully in victory. One major argument is that the Fallujah offensive, now that Iraqi forces have won, will not translate into lasting stability, that its upholders have not provided a viable alternative strategy or one that ensures uprooting the vicious terror group. Furthermore, the Iraqi government is being warned that its campaign to retake Fallujah could lead to a further rise in Daesh. Advocates of this scenario say that as happened with Al-Qaeda in Iraq, Daesh will merely resurface after the campaign, perhaps in an even more vigorous form. And recent history has proven that defeating Daesh is a mammoth challenge. It took several failed attempts to crush Daesh in neighboring Ramadi, and much of that city remains uninhabitable. Moreover, after Fallujah, an even bigger challenge looms: trying to take back Mosul, Iraq's second largest city. Daesh took over Mosul in June 2014 in what was a humiliating defeat of the Iraqi army. As few as 400 Daesh fighters bested 10,000 soldiers and police and captured a massive arsenal of US-supplied equipment - including 2,000 Humvees. When Fallujah fell to Daesh, it dealt a significant blow to Iraq as well as Western countries trying to contain or eradicate the terror group. Now it's back but after Iraqi forces managed to wrest the crucial city from Daesh's control, it's unclear what Fallujah will look like. It could be the hodgepodge of the forces which freed it. A mix of Iraqi army, police, anti-terrorism units, Sunni tribal militias, US and allied air power and advisers, and Shia-dominated militias trained by Iran all participated in the offensive. Given the strategic importance of Fallujah, recapturing the city could also be more than a victory for Baghdad. It could be a complete game changer in the Iraqi conflict that could affect not only the country's wobbly internal political dynamics but also the fragile regional order.
