"Iwant the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) to win, but to win fairly, not by cheating," Tin Aye, chairman of Myanmar's Union Election Commission said in June. A former army general, Tin Aye was a lawmaker who belonged to the ruling USDP until he was appointed the election chief. As the people of this predominantly Buddhist country go to the polls today, the one question on everyone's mind is: How fair and free will an election be which is overseen by a man who has openly expressed a wish for an outcome in favor of the military-backed ruling party? There are several other reasons to cast doubt on the fairness of this election. For one thing, 25 percent of the seats in Parliament are reserved for the military. Added to this are discriminatory voter registration laws and mass disenfranchisement of voters in some parts of the country. And there is also the constitutional provision that prohibits MPs with children who are foreign citizens from being elected president. This means that Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD) and the most popular politician in the country, cannot have the top job (her husband was British, as are her children), although her party is expected to trounce the USDP. If some people in Myanmar and abroad see a promise of the country's return to democracy in today's election, for the Muslim minority, including the Rohingya, it is another step toward their delegitimization — a process which started when Myanmar's Parliament passed laws meant to discriminate against all Muslims, not just the Rohingya. During the 2010 election, Myanmar's 1.3 million Rohingya, concentrated in western Rakhine state, were allowed to vote, but since then they have been disfranchised under controversial citizenship laws. Other Muslims can vote. Of the more than 6,000 candidates running in the elections, only 28 are Muslim, almost all of them representing little known Muslim parties. Neither the USDP nor the NLD was willing to field Muslim candidates for fear of being dubbed pro-Muslim by the Buddhist monks who are conducting a campaign of vilification against this minority. This means the next Parliament will have no Muslim MPs. This is Myanmar's first contested election since 1990 when the military annulled an overwhelming victory by the NLD, but no one is willing to hazard a guess about what will happen once the results are announced. If Suu Kyi achieves a resounding victory, she may push hard for greater reform and constitutional change and this may lead to confrontation with the military. All we can say is that the aftermath of the election is likely to be marked by tension, instability and violence. Unfortunately, the West will be helpless if the generals refuse to honor the verdict of the people, for they have already lost their leverage by lifting all sanctions on Myanmar. In fact, the West will cite this election as Myanmar being on the path to political reform and openness. But we should remember what happened when the NLD won a landslide in 1990, even though Suu Kyi was under house arrest. She was freed only in late 2010, a few months before the military handed power to a semi-civilian government. The West would do well to remember that President Thein Sein, a former general who has led the government since 2011 has not ruled out another tilt at the top job.
