This week, to the fury of Beijing, the American guided missile destroyer USS Lassen sailed within 12 miles of two reefs to the northwest of Brunei. The reason for Chinese anger is that the US warship was passing close to two man-made islands in the South China sea, which the Chinese are claiming justify the extension of their territorial waters almost up to the coast of Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines. Washington's actions have been welcomed by these three countries as well as by the Vietnamese who are also in dispute with the Chinese over the ownership of offshore islands and reefs. There has been media praise for America's determination to stick up for smaller states in the face of Beijing's aggressive tactics over an area of ocean that is thought to contain significant quantities of oil and gas and is of considerable economic consequence to local fishing fleets. However, this is to misread what the Americans are doing. The ever cautious President Barack Obama is not going to allow the US to become embroiled in disputes over who owns which bit of reef. He is perfectly content to let such issues be left to lawyers to argue over using international legislation and arbitration. What concerns America and indeed ought to worry all maritime states is the issue of the freedom of navigation. With China's territorial claims comes sovereign control of much of the South China Sea. This is clearly going to be backed up by the military installations the Chinese are constructing on artificial islands which have been built on submerged reefs. These include at least three airfields. The practicality of maintaining these tiny strategic outposts and their sensitive equipment in the face of frequent tropical storms and the highly corrosive saline air will be of small consequence to Beijing. The payback in terms of the assertion of regional power will be worth any amount of difficulty. Washington's position is purely that these are still international waters. The USS Lassen will be followed by other America warships which it will be said are only doing what they have always done. Washington will further say that as and when China's claim to the distant reefs that it has occupied is validated by an international court or tribunal or enshrined in a new treaty, it will of course abide by that change. Until then it is almost forced to send its warships into these disputed waters. If it did not, it would be giving de facto recognition to Beijing's title claim. It must, however, be assumed that the Chinese have thought through what happens next. A Chinese warship cruising close to Diego Garcia, the British Indian Ocean island on which the US has built a massive base, might be an amusing provocation. It seems highly unlikely that the Chinese will attack US warships. That would clearly be too risky. But they will surely have calculated that repeated American military demonstrations will allow them to claim that in the face of this "foreign aggression", they must redouble their efforts to make all these reefs secure. The Chinese have clearly learnt a lesson from the Israelis. When you are stealing someone else's territory, the key consideration is to establish "facts on the ground". Its allies in the region ought to be wondering if America will in the end be as supine over the South China Sea settlements as it has been over those in Jerusalem and the West Bank.
