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Kim's death complicates nuclear quandary
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 20 - 12 - 2011


Reuters
The death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il could dim hopes for fresh nuclear talks with the United States and its key Asian allies as an untested and largely unknown heir takes charge of one of the world's most feared atomic renegade states.
The White House said that President Barack Obama was in close touch with allies in South Korea and Japan, which along with Washington have been engaged in six-nation talks on North Korea's nuclear program.
But news of Kim's death comes at a tricky time for the Obama administration as it weighs whether to re-engage with Pyongyang on the nuclear issue and whether to provide food aid for millions of North Koreans hard hit by shortages.
More crucially - both for Washington and its close ally Seoul - is the question of whether Kim's hermetic state can survive his death and complete a power transition that most analysts expect to favor his presumptive heir, leader-in-waiting Kim Jong-un.
Kim's reported death came as the US envoy for North Korean nuclear issues, Glyn Davies, returned to Washington for consultations after talks in Seoul, Tokyo and Beijing over the nuclear issue.
US officials have said no decision on restarting the talks is imminent, but have also recently relaunched talks with North Korean diplomats on resuming food aid - a step widely seen as a positive signal.
The United States and its chief Asian allies have resisted calls to restart the so-called “six-party” talks involving the two Koreas, the United States, China, Japan and Russia which broke down in 2008, and United Nations inspectors were expelled from North Korea in 2009.
US officials remain leery of North Korea's intentions and doubts have grown amid reports that Kim Jong-il's health problems were opening a transition plan to elevate to the top office his son Kim Jong-un - a man believed to be in his late 20s, and about whom little is known.
Some analysts said Kim's death - and the transition to a young and untested leader - could darken the outlook for the nuclear talks.
The United States, backed by Japan and South Korea, has demanded that North Korea signal its sincerity on nuclear negotiations by halting provocative actions such as the sinking of a South Korean warship and the shelling of a South Korean island last year. Some North Korea watchers have attributed the two attacks to efforts by the younger Kim to demonstrate his leadership style, leading to fears that new provocations could strain the already tense relationship between North and South Korea.
“Kim Jong-un .... may feel it necessary in the future to precipitate a crisis to prove his mettle to other senior leaders or to generate a ‘rally-around-the-flag' effect,” said Bruce Klingner, an Asia policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation in Washington.
Klingner said he believed fresh North Korean military action was unlikely in the near term.
Some North Korea experts said the leadership in Pyongyang was likely to focus internally over the medium term as it seeks to firm up control both during and after the succession. __


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