member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are projected to double their combined fiscal surplus this year to around $608 billion, an increase of around $143 billion over 2010 amid high oil prices, financial analysts said. From nearly $70 a barrel in 2010, oil prices could climb to their highest average of at least $100 in 2010. “The surge in oil prices and output shored up the GCC states' financial capabilities, allowing them substantial annual budget surpluses,” the Emirates Industrial Bank (EIB) said in a study. It said the GCC countries, which sit atop more than 40 percent of the world's recoverable crude deposits, recorded a combined fiscal surplus of around $136 billion in 2010 and projected the balance to rocket to $304 billion in 2011. OPEC's statistics showed Saudi Arabia earned nearly $196 billion in 2010 compared with around $167 billion in 2009. The UAE's income surged to $74 billion last year from $57.5 billion while that of Kuwait and Qatar swelled to $61.6 billion and $29.2 billion from $46.6 billion and $19.1 billion respectively. Saudi American Bank Group (SAMBA) said earlier, based on IMF estates, that the combined GCC fiscal surplus would surge to 11 percent of GDP in 2011 from nearly 5.8 percent in 2010 and a deficit of one percent in 2009. A breakdown showed all members, excluding Bahrain, would record surplus, which it put at as high as 27 percent in Kuwait and 10.2 percent in Saudi Arabia. The surplus was forecast at 6.9 percent in the UAE, eight percent in Qatar, and five percent in Oman. However, Bahrain could have a shortfall of seven percent. Kuwait has already released figures for the first months of its fiscal 2011-2012 year, which started on April 1 showing the budget surplus nearly doubled to KD8.1 billion ($29 billion) from KD4.6 billion ($16 billion) in the same period of the previous fiscal year. The surplus this year accounted for 22 percent of GDP in Saudi Arabia. Forecasts by Jadwa Investment showed the surplus could be SR226 billion ($60 billion) compared with a budgeted deficit of SR40 billion. The projected surplus this year will be more than double the SR109 billion ($29 billion) balance recorded in 2010 and in sharp contrast with the SR87 billion ($23 billion) deficit in 2009, when oil prices were relatively low. Jadwa expected the Kingdom's actual public expenditure to leap by nearly 40 percent to SR809 billion this year mainly because of government commitment under an initiative announced by King Abdullah, Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, early this year involving spending of more than SR500 billion. But it expected revenue to rocket to their highest ever level of SR1,035 billion ($276 billion) as a result of the surge in oil prices and the Kingdom's crude output. Qatar is expected to record a much higher fiscal surplus this year because of strong crude prices and gas exports. SAMBA said Qatar based its budget for fiscal year 2011-2012 on an oil price of $55 a barrel, almost half the expected actual average this year. “Despite the expected large increases in spending, Qatar can comfortably finance its budget. Hydrocarbon revenues will surge this year on the back of stronger prices and higher production and overall we expect the budget surplus will rise back to eight percent of GDP in 2011/2012, with a likely dip to six percent the following year on somewhat weaker oil prices,” it added.
