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Confronting Iran in the next decade
By Sultan Abdullah
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 19 - 11 - 2011


Saudi Gazette
Saudi Arabia is reaching out to the world by playing important regional and international roles owing to its political stability and influence. “The Kingdom is moving toward the outside world with trust and toward its national security with vigilance,” said Prince Turki Al-Faisal, Chairman of the Board of Directors of King Faisal Center for Islamic Research and Studies, in a lecture at the Marine Corps University at Quantico Military Base near Washington, Monday night.
Prince Turki talked about Saudi national security in three areas - external security, internal security and energy security. External security deals with the Kingdom's relations with other countries while internal security deals with political stability and the promotion of social harmony in the country. Energy security does not only mean the protection of oil fields, but also the comprehensive policy of oil production to keep the markets stable.
Prince Turki said the Kingdom has confidence and trust in its relations with other countries. First, because it is the cradle of Islam, a religion with more than a billion believers across the world, and second, because the Kingdom represents 20 percent of the gross national product of the Middle East and North African countries. Added to that, the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency is one of the third largest banks in the region and Saudi Aramco is the largest oil producer among the OPEC countries with a production of 12.5 million barrels a day and a surplus of about four billion barrels per day.
Taking an overview of the regional situation, Prince Turki said the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will continue to be a difficult problem for years to come. On Iran, which faces a lot of problems in its relations with other countries and its internal stability, he said it must satisfy the economic needs of its people for its present government to stay in power.
The Kingdom's thrust, he said, is to develop the Saudi economy to meet the needs of the Saudi people and also help maintain the stability of the Middle East, which has been rocked by unrest that resulted in the fall of the leaders of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya and is threatening the current regimes in Syria and Yemen. The Kingdom, he said, believes that progress is the most important and vital security measure in the years to come.
“There should be economic and social advancement for the people and governments of the Middle East so that peace will prevail in the region,” he said in his lecture, “Saudi National Security in the Next Ten Years”.
While saying that Iran has the right to develop a peaceful nuclear program, he added that the Kingdom is concerned that Tehran's nuclear program might be geared toward producing nuclear arms which could trigger an arms race in the region. “It's in the Kingdom's interest that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons because if it does, other countries in the region will seek to have nuclear weapons,” Prince Turki said.
The Kingdom, he said, wants the Middle East region to be nuclear-free and hopes that Iran and Israel will give up their ambitions to have stockpiles of nuclear arms. He added that the United Nations Security Council should find the means to guarantee the region's security. He said that a military solution to halt Iran's destructive nuclear arms program is not the best alternative and that other non-military solutions should be found.
“We need to deal with the conduct of Iranian leaders over the next decade. We've seen their latest plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in the United States. This shows the illogical thinking of Ahmadinejad's regime,” he said. He recalled that Iran has also been meddling in the internal affairs of other countries like Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait and Lebanon to create instability in the region.
Prince Turki foresees that Iraq, although rocked by violence, can still play an important role in the Arab world as a founding member of the Arab League and OPEC because it has large natural resources that were destroyed by Iran. “Iraq has become a place for increasing Iranian influence. There are groups and people in Iraq who are controlled by the Iranian leader Khamenei.” He said the Kingdom wants Iraq, which owes the Kingdom $25 billion, to remain active in the Arab World and rid itself of destructive foreign influence. The Kingdom, he said, has promised to cancel the debt provided that Iraq ends sectarian intervention in other countries and rids itself of Iranian influence.
On Yemen, Prince Turki said the Kingdom and its partners in the Gulf region are working together for a peaceful transfer of power from President Ali Abdullah Saleh to the National Unity government, which is expected to formulate a new constitution when the conflict is ended. He said the Kingdom's aid program to Sana'a, which started 10 years ago, has been frozen until stability is restored in Yemen.
On Lebanon, he said the Kingdom wants the rule of law to prevail in that country and the killers of the late prime minister Rafiq Al-Hariri to stand trial. “The Kingdom donated $1.5 billon to Lebanon on the eve of the Israeli invasion in 2006. The purpose of the donation is to build a strong and stable Lebanon and end the Iranian influence there. The Kingdom called years ago for disarming Hezbollah which is supported by Iran,” Prince Turki said.
Regarding Syria, Prince Turki said the latest talks between the Kingdom and Syria collapsed because of differences over how the intensifying conflict in Lebanon can be contained and how bloodshed in Syria can be stopped.
“Over 3,000 people have been killed in Syria and more are being killed every day despite the Arab League's plan which calls on the Syrian government to pull out tanks from cities, release political prisoners and allow journalists and human rights organizations to enter Syria.”
On Egypt, Prince Turki said, “Egypt plays a special role in the Kingdom's security interests and both countries have historical relations with each other. King Abdullah, Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, had close relations with president Hosni Mubarak. But King Abdullah accepted the new reality after the Egyptian people said what they wanted. King Abdullah extended his friendship to the new Egyptian leadership and donated $4 billion in grants, loans and deposits.
On Bahrain, he said Saudi Arabia wants it to be stable because of its proximity to the Kingdom. “(Iranian leader) Khomeini started to export his revolution to all Islamic countries after the Iranian revolution in 1979. Those who say that the latest unrest in Bahrain was not instigated by Iran forget that it was Khomeini who established Hezbollah in Bahrain and provided it with Iranian support,” Prince Turki said.
Forces from Gulf countries went to Bahrain on its request to protect vital facilities in the country, Prince Turki said. King Hamad kept calling for negotiation and the Kingdom supported his call, Prince Turki added.
He said the situation in Tunisia and Libya is still shaping up and that stability relies on the people's selection of leaderships that meet their expectations.
Toward the end of the briefing, Prince Turki talked about the Saudi national security, the national dialogue program, increasing government transparency and developments in the field of women's education, providing more job opportunities, reforming the judicial system and setting up the allegiance committee to guarantee smooth transfer of power.
He said all these initiatives were taken to meet the needs of citizens and to reinforce the value of citizenship. Prince Turki gave three examples of what the Kingdom has been doing to bring progress, security and stability to the country. Among these was King Abdullah's decision to allow women to vote and to run for elected office.
Prince Turki said Crown Prince Naif is an advocate and supporter of progress. “King Abdullah's reforms put the Kingdom in a place that qualifies it to be a pioneer international country in different fields in the 21st century,” Prince Turki said.
He said reforms will continue under any new leadership because these are for the interest of the people and were not an impulsive decision of a leader.
Regarding terrorism, Prince Turki said the Kingdom is taking a strong stand in the fight against terrorism and continues to support the security forces, cooperates with other countries in information exchange, tracks terrorists and supports Saudi scholars who issue fatwas against terrorism.
He said the Kingdom invested $45 billion to increase its oil production, develop new oil fields and increase the capacity of oil refineries. The Kingdom is committed to maintaining the stability of the oil market, he said. __


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