I AM rubbing my eyes with disbelief here in Belgrade because what I read in western newspapers is not what I see on the ground. Editorials carry headings to this effect: Serbs Opt for EU. In other words, the crucial elections of May 11 were supposed to have thrown up a pro-EU government. But nothing of the sort has happened. Yes, pro-EU President Tadic won 38 percent of the votes. This leaves the field wide open for Serbian nationalists of varying shades to stoke fires of extremism. The background to these elections needs to be understood. On February 17, the province of Kosovo broke away from Serbia and declared itself independent. This announcement was sponsored by the US and supported by important (but not all) EU countries. Among the countries that have not recognized the independence of Kosovo happens to be Spain, which has a Basque separatist problem. Indeed, Washington expected 100 countries to recognize Kosovo within weeks of its declaration of independence. But the figure has not exceeded 40. The EU did its best to help Tadic. It signed the Stabilization and Association agreement days before the election to soften the Serb pain on account of Kosovo, but the EU also attached an impossible condition: Belgrade must deliver to the International Court in The Hague the two Serbs accused of war crimes - Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic. In brief, what the West is trying to do with the Serbs is this: they have to pass some very tough tests before they are psychologically prepared for entry into the European Union. What are these tough psychological tests? Let me paraphrase the words of an EU official. “Serbs must come to terms with their defeat in the Yugoslav wars, they must come to terms with the loss of Kosovo”. Naturally, a large number of Serbs are very angry. “Judas Tadic,” goes one chant against the pro EU president. In a deeply Christian country, to be called the man who betrayed Jesus is the ultimate insult. Russians are taking advantage of the situation. But they are still unhappy that Tadic won the largest number of votes. “NATO bombed them for 79 days in 1999 and three months ago Americans stole Kosovo from them”. He began to shake his head in disbelief. “And so many have gone and voted for a pro-EU man.” There exists between the Serbs and the Russians an abiding ethnic bond - both are Slavs. This bond is further cemented by a common affiliation to the Orthodox Church. Since the collapse of “Godless communism”, the Orthodox Church is not just reawakened, but resurgent. Little wonder, then, that the centers of the Orthodox Church in Moscow, Belgrade and Athens now form a strategic triangle. When the hat was passed around by the US for the recognition of Kosovo, Athens declined, even though it is a member of NATO. That Ankara was among the first countries to recognize Kosovo should not be attributed only to its continuous undercurrent of hostility with Athens. That may have been a tiny consideration. The much bigger reason for Ankara's enthusiasm for recognizing Kosovo is to remain America's most reliable ally in the Balkans. This, at some risk, is because it faces a Kurdish problem in the southeast. But the risk may be worth taking because Kosovo is now an EU project and that is where Ankara wishes to soften resistance to its eventual entry into Europe. Also, if Albania, Kosovo and Macedonia are all in line for NATO and EU entry, it is useful for Ankara to be with this sort of momentum. Who knows, if Kosovo can be recognized because it is different from Serbia, Northern Cyprus may one day too. Kosovo is Muslim and Serbia is Serbian Orthodox; Northern Cyprus is Muslim and Nicosia is Greek Orthodox. These days neither the Greek Orthodox nor the government in Athens are in harmony with the Americans. New Delhi, of course, said no, as did a host of other countries. Poor Hamid Karzai in Kabul was commandeered to be the first to recognize independent Kosovo which is secured by NATO, (K-FOR), administered by the UN mission in Kosovo gradually making way to European institutions without any new UN resolution which, if it were tabled, would be vetoed by Russia. So, the 1.5 million Muslims of Kosovo are at the moment totally dependent on American goodwill. Call it strategic interest, if you like. __
