Reuters Kenya's deployment inside Somalia lacks the military muscle to deal a mortal blow to militant rebels blamed for a spate of kidnappings and risks galvanizing support for the militants plagued by internal rifts and popular resentment. With half an eye on elections next year, Kenya's political leaders could ill-afford to do nothing after the abductions of foreigners and last week launched an offensive against the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Al-Shabaab rebels, now hunkering down for battle in their southern Somalia strongholds. The east African country has watched nervously during the last two decades as first warlords then militant insurgents reduced the Somali government to impotency. It is desperate to prevent the conflict spilling over the border. The latest wave of abductions on the Kenyan coast and from the world's largest refugee camp at Dadaab in the northeast of the country exposed how porous the semi-arid frontier remains. But Kenya's military operation comes at a time when Al-Shabaab is on the back foot, beset by a widening split among commanders favoring a nationalist cause and those bent on a more international agenda. This divide led to the rebels abandoning Mogadishu for the first time in five years in August. The rifts were exacerbated by Al-Shabaab's poor handling of the famine ravaging Somalia, which stoked popular anger at their draconian rule. Somalis, however, have traditionally fiercely opposed foreign intervention and a drawn out military offensive risks rallying rebel support, especially if civilian casualties are high. “Al-Shabaab was losing ground and popular support. Foreign intervention at this time is counterproductive,” said Afyare Elmi, a Somali political scientist at Qatar University's International Affairs department. “It will create conditions that would nourish violent extremism by giving al Shabaab a cause and raise the motivation of its fighters. This was a strategic mistake on the part of Kenya.” __
