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Middle East airlines need 2,340 aircraft worth $390b
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 17 - 10 - 2011

Middle Eastern airlines will require 2,340 aircraft by 2029 with a total value of $390 billion as the regional industry expands, Boeing predicted recently. Airbus also forecast that by 2028, the Middle East fleet will treble in size.
Boeing also estimates that the regional aviation industry will grow upward at an average of 7.1 percent a year for the next 20 years. About 43 percent of the expected aircraft deliveries will be wide-bodies, confirming the trend that the Middle East will play an increasing role in global aviation (long haul).
The high growth is aided by several factors including aircraft orders, tourism, government spending, low-cost airlines, deregulation, among others. Massive expansion programs were initiated for both airport infrastructure and fleet expansion.
Currently, there are 37 main civil airports in the GCC region alone. Of these, more than 30 are in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Saudi Arabia has four international airports and 22 domestic airports. The Kingdom's international airports account for 85 percent of passenger traffic.
Passenger traffic in the GCC has grown at a CAGR of 10 percent between 2002 and 2010 – significantly higher than the global traffic growth in the same period which was between 1 percent and 3 percent.
The explosive passenger traffic has necessitated the large-scale expansion of existing facilities to cope with the demand.
Consequently, GCC governments have ratcheted up investment in the upgradation and expansion of airports to satisfy existing demand and achieve future strategic goals. These investments are in the neighborhood of $104 billion over the coming few years, concentrated primarily in the UAE; the majority of which is for the Al Maktoum Airport with an estimated cost of $50 billion, due to be completed by 2020, Kuwait Financial Centre (Markaz) said in its recent report.
Dubai, Kuwait, and Qatar have at least one airport project on the anvil. Oman has two major airport expansions in Muscat and Salalah, and Saudi Arabia has started the expansion of the airports in Madina and Jeddah. Bahrain has begun the expansion of its existing terminal but has cancelled a project for two new terminals.
By 2020, Emirates, Qatar, and Etihad airlines will have the capacity to carry nearly 200 million passengers – four times their current capacity.
By 2015, the Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi airports will reach an annual capacity of 190 million passengers. Dubai's new, five-runway airport will be able to handle 70 million passengers. Dubai Airport has doubled in size every few years. Abu Dhabi and Qatar are following suit, the report added.


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