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NATO faces risks in Libya endgame
By Justyna Pawlak
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 02 - 10 - 2011


Reuters
NATO commanders face a tough balancing act during the bloody battle for Muammar Gaddafi's last strongholds, Sirte and Bani Walid.
NATO allies would like to let the National Transitional Council (NTC) claim victory in these battles and war for itself. That would enhance the council's legitimacy as the new ruler of Libya after Gaddafi's four decades in power, and bolster the chances of a stable democracy taking root in the country.
But the European governments that led NATO's air campaign in Libya also need to remain long enough and engaged enough to make sure the success so far is not diminished by a messy withdrawal. If NATO quietly stepped aside but fighting restarted, that would diminish Europe's standing in Libya and tarnish a campaign that has been seen as a success for Europeans.
To achieve this, experts say, NATO forces are keen to cut back the bombing campaign that was instrumental in giving the NTC a military edge. Instead, NATO will likely step up other operations such as surveillance and air support to eliminate any remaining weaponry that could threaten peaceful transition. NATO declines to comment on its immediate operations.
“As we approach the endgame, it is very clear NATO's role will become very much the eyes and ears of the NTC, rather than the hammer,” said Tim Ripley, a London-based military expert at Jane's Defense Weekly.
“The next phase in Libya will amount to a more deliberate mopping up of the country as the NTC moves to establish their control and presence.”
One problem is that Gaddafi's remaining loyalists are in Bani Walid and Sirte, which are densely populated. That makes it risky to try to bomb them because of the danger of civilian casualties. NATO, argues Shashank Joshi, an analyst with the Royal United Services Institute in London, lacks sufficient intelligence to allow it to pinpoint targets in Sirte and Bani Walid without endangering civilians.
“We are in a fortress situation where the city is under siege. If you don't know that a particular building is being used as a school or a mosque, even the best intelligence won't give you the details,” he said.
“In Tripoli, you had rebels, you had (Western) special forces, networks of resistance. We don't have that kind of information in Sirte or Bani Walid. So targeting is inherently difficult.”
To a degree, battle conditions with Gaddafi's remaining loyalists necessitate a change of operational approach because of the limitations of NATO jets' firepower which is too dangerous to use, said Ripley of Jane's Defense Weekly.
“Gaddafi forces are no longer using tanks and artillery that were easier to hit and identify. The NTC is using infantry to drive Gaddafi's forces from building to building,” Ripley said.
“Both sides are operating in such close proximity that differentiating between the sides is difficult. That makes it very difficult to use air


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