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Libyan economy alive but not well
By Omar Elmershedi
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 17 - 09 - 2011

From the cavity of the Libyan desert, oil has been exported successively to international markets since 1961. Since then, Libya became one of the important countries in the world, with a stock of strategic huge amount of crude oil exceeding 75 billion barrels according to some optimistic estimates, and will be exploitable up to at least 80 years at current world demand.
The Libyan economy at present depends primarily on revenues from the oil sector, which constitute practically all export earnings and about one quarter of gross domestic product (GDP). Libya, prior to popular uprising, was one of the wealthiest countries in the world. Its GDP per capita was higher than that of developed countries such as Italy, Singapore, Korea, Spain and New Zealand.
Today, high oil revenues and a small population give Libya one of the highest GDPs per capita in Africa and have allowed the Libyan state to provide an extensive level of social security, particularly in the fields of housing and education. Many problems still beset Libya's economy, however. Unemployment is the highest in the region at 21 percent, according to the latest census figures.
Compared to its neighbors, Libya enjoys a low level of both absolute and relative poverty. Libyan officials in the past six years have carried out economic reforms as part of a broader campaign to reintegrate the country into the global capitalist economy. This effort picked up steam after UN sanctions were lifted in September 2003, and as Libya announced in December 2003 that it would abandon programs to build weapons of mass destruction.
Libya has begun some market-oriented reforms. Initial steps have included applying for membership of the World Trade Organization, reducing subsidies, and announcing plans for privatization. Authorities have privatized more than 100 government-owned companies since 2003 in industries including oil refining, tourism and real estate, of which 29 are 100 percent foreign owned. The non-oil manufacturing and construction sectors, which account for about 20 percent of GDP, have expanded from processing mostly agricultural products to include the production petrochemicals, iron, steel and aluminum.
Climatic conditions and poor soils severely limit agricultural output, and Libya imports about 75 percent of its food. Water is also a problem, with some 32 percent of the population not having access to safe drinking water in 2007. The Great Manmade River project is tapping into vast underground aquifers of fresh water discovered during the quest for oil, and is intended to improve the country's agricultural output.
Under the pre-Gaddafi's Prime Minister Baghdadi Mahmudi, Libya was supposedly undergoing a business boom. Many government-run industries were being privatized. Many international oil companies have returned to the country, including oil giants Shell and ExxonMobil.
Tourism is on the rise, bringing increased demand for hotel accommodation and for capacity at airports such as Tripoli International. A multimillion dollar renovation of Libyan airports was approved in 2006 to help meet such demands. In 2008, about 180,000 persons visited Libya annually. The current Libyan government hopes to increase this figure to 250,000 ,000 tourists in five years. Libya has long been a notoriously difficult country for Western tourists to visit due to stringent visa requirements. Since the 2011 protests, there has been a revived hope that an open society will encourage the return of tourists. It is involved in a green development project called the Green Mountain Sustainable Development Area, which seeks to bring tourism to Cyrene and to preserve Greek ruins in the area.
In August 2011, Ahmed Jehani, head of the Libyan Stabilization Team appointed by the National Transition Council, estimated it would take at least 10 years to rebuild Libya's infrastructure. He also noted that Libya's infrastructure was in a poor state, even before the 2011 civil war due to "utter neglect" by Gaddafi's administration.
The Post-Gaddafi State
The Libyan economy is now relatively stable, according to a statement by Abdullah Shamiah, the new Libyan Minister of Economy in the transitional authorities. He further said to reporters last August in Tripoli, that the war has made damages in the infrastructure of the Libyan economy, but the economy is largely stable with control of inflation.
He said problems can be overcome. In spite of the serious shortage of fuel, water and labor, inflation remains in single digits with no sign of any increase in prices that could hurt the financial situation of families and stop economic advancement. Independent sources estimate the return to pre-up rise state would take up to seven years, requiring a total budget of about $25-30 billion. Increased power generation capacities, water desalination, housing and road construction could eat up to 60 percent of the previous estimate.
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